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Four Essays in International Trade and Economic Development

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Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology

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This dissertation comprises four essays investigating the impact of trade agreements on trade outcomes and the relationship between export diversification and economic growth. Chapter 1 investigates the effect of the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) on Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries’ exports to the U.S. We used synthetic control method and U.S.-AGOA data. The study reveals that AGOA member nations experienced a significant $818.11 million annual increase (42%) in exports compared to levels expected without AGOA. The impact varied across countries and product types, with agricultural, mineral, and textile/apparel exports surging annually by 42%, 15%, and 52%, respectively. This was validated using difference-in-differences and event study approaches, confirming the robustness of the findings. Chapter 2 focuses on the impact of Brexit on trade flows between the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU) and the rest of the world (ROW). I used trade data from BACI and CEPII Gravity Database. The study employed a difference-in-difference approach integrated into the gravity model framework and estimated using the Heckman selection model. Brexit led to reduced UK imports and exports values with both the EU and ROW, affecting durable and non-durable goods. In the UK, the import value from the EU decreased by 0.41%, whereas imports from the rest of the world (ROW) dropped by 0.20%. Specifically, imports of durable goods from the EU and ROW declined by 0.39% and 0.24%, respectively. Non-durable goods also saw decreases in imports, with a 0.41% fall from the EU and a 0.18% drop from the ROW. Conversely, UK exports faced declines as well, with a 0.86% decrease in total export value to the EU and a 0.47% decrease in export value to the ROW. Durable goods exports from the UK experienced a 0.64% decrease to the EU and a 0.61% decrease to the ROW. Non-durable goods exports followed a similar trend, declining by 0.91% to the EU and 0.43% to the ROW. These results are supported by robustness checks using various methods. Chapter 3 explores how the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) unrestricted sugar trade agreement impacted sugar consumption and diabetes prevalence in the United States. We applied methods including synthetic control method, difference-in-difference, and panel event-study to estimate the impact of the policy using sugar consumption and health data for seven countries. Post-agreement, US sugar consumption increased annually by 16% (5240g per capita), corresponding to a 1% annual rise in diabetes prevalence, incurring an estimated $324.37 million yearly. State-level impacts varied, notably affecting areas with specific demographic characteristics such as higher poverty level, greater Black population, lower percentage of the population with a high school degree, and higher percent female population. Chapter 4 investigates the relationship between export diversification and economic growth in thirty-nine Sub-Saharan African countries. We used macroeconomic data from United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the Arellano-Bond difference generalized method-of-moment estimator, the study finds positive economic growth effects with better corruption control and governance quality, showcasing export diversification beyond the growth-optimized level. This was confirmed through robustness checks using country-fixed effect regression, ensuring the stability of the findings.

https://etd.auburn.edu//handle/10415/9119

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(2007) PhD thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science.

In this thesis, I theoretically investigate three related aspects of international trade and economic development. First, I present a model of social learning about the suitability of local conditions for new business ventures and explore its implications for the microeconomic patterns of economic development. I show that: i) firms tend to 'rush' into business ventures with which other firms have had surprising success thus causing development to be 'lumpy'; ii) sufficient business confidence is crucial for fostering economic growth; iii) development may involve wavelike patterns of growth where successive business ventures are first pursued and then given up; iv) there is, nevertheless, no guarantee that firms pursue the best venture even in the long-run. Second, I offer a new explanation for the empirical finding that trade liberalization increases firm productivity. In particular, I develop a simple general equilibrium model of trade in which trade liberalization leads to outsourcing as firms focus on their core competencies in response to tougher competition. Since firms are better at performing tasks the closer they are to their core competencies, this outsourcing increases firm productivity. Third, I propose a novel theory of GATT/WTO negotiations which solves two important problems of the standard terms-of-trade theory. First, it is consistent with the fact that GATT/WTO regulations do not constrain export taxes. Second, it does not rely on the terms-of-trade argument but instead emphasizes market access considerations. To achieve this, I consider trade policy in a 'new trade' environment. I first argue that tariffs are inefficiently high in the non-cooperative equilibrium because countries attempt to improve their relative market access at the expense of other countries. I then show how GATT/WTO negotiations can help countries overcome this inefficiency by providing new rationales for the GATT/WTO principles of reciprocity and nondiscrimination.

Item Type: Thesis (PhD)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Economics, General
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Topics in International Economics

PhD Skills Development Module, Term 2

This module offers an overview of several active areas of research in international trade. It introduces frontier topics, insights, and tools, with the goal of preparing PhD students to conduct independent cutting-edge research in the field, as well as in adjacent fields where ideas and techniques from international trade may be useful, such as urban and spatial economics, labor, development, IO, finance, and macro. 

The module will consist of 10 two-hour lectures. The preliminary set of topics includes:

  • Trade, FDI and financial frictions (Kalina Manova)
  • Global value chains and production networks (Kalina Manova)
  • Trade and labor markets (Gabriel Ulyssea)
  • Trade within countries and development (Gabriel Ulyssea)
  • Cities and development (Gabriel Ulyssea)
  • Spatial and general equilibrium spillovers (Kirill Borusyak)
  • The effects of trade on welfare and inequality (Kirill Borusyak)

Students from University of London universities other than UCL are welcome to register.

Instructors

Lectures : TBA Office hours : TBA

Prerequisites

We strongly recommend that students take or audit EC532 “International Economics for Research Students” during Term 1 at the LSE. This module covers baseline models in international trade that provide useful foundations for the topics course at UCL. UCL students can easily register for EC532, and Daniella Harper can assist with the logistics.

No formal assessment is required for this skills development PhD module. In order to fully benefit from the module, students are strongly encouraged to complete all assigned reading and participate actively in class. Interested students are welcome to develop a 5-page project proposal that they could pursue as part of their dissertation and receive constructive feedback from the lecturers.  

Reading List

  • Foley, F. and K. Manova (2015). “International Trade, Multinational Activity, and Corporate Finance.” Annual Review of Economics 7: 119-46.
  • Manova, K. (2013). “Credit Constraints, Heterogeneous Firms and International Trade.” Review of Economic Studies 80: 711-44.
  • Antràs, P., Desai, M. and F. Foley (2009). “Multinational Firms, FDI Flows and Imperfect Capital Markets.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 124: 1171-219.
  • Manova, K., Wei, S.-J. and Z. Zhang (2015). “Firm Exports and Multinational Activity under Credit Constraints.” Review of Economics and Statistics 97, p.574-88.
  • Bilir, K., Chor, D., and K. Manova (2019). “Host Country Financial Development and Multinational Activity.” European Economic Review 115: 192-220.
  • Berthou, A., Chung, J.H., Manova, K. and C. Sandoz (2018). “Trade, Productivity and (Mis)allocation." CEPR Working Paper.
  • Antràs, P. and D. Chor (2021). “Global Value Chains.” NBER Working Paper 28549.
  • Bernard, A. and A. Moxnes (2018). “Networks and Trade.” Annual Review of Economics 10: 65-85.
  • Bernard, A., Dhyne, E., Magerman, G., Manova, K. and A. Moxnes (2020). “The Origins of Firm Heterogeneity: A Production Network Approach." Journal of Political Economy (forthcoming).
  • Huang, H., Manova, K. and F. Pisch (2021). “Firm Heterogeneity and Imperfect Competition in Global Production Networks.” Mimeo.
  • Autor, D. H., Dorn, D. and Hanson, G. H. (2013). “The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Impacts of Import Competition in the United States.” American Economic Review 103(6), 2121-2168.
  • Autor, D., Dorn, D. and Hanson, G. (2016) “The China Shock: Learning about Labor Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade.” Annual Review of Economics 8, 205-240.    
  • Dix-Carneiro, Rafael, and Brian K. Kovak (2017). "Trade Liberalization and Regional Dynamics." American Economic Review 107: 2908-46.
  • Ponczek, Vladimir, and Gabriel Ulyssea (2021). "Enforcement of Labor Regulation and the Labor Market Effects of Trade: Evidence from Brazil." Conditionally accepted at Economic Journal.
  • Dix-Carneiro, Rafael, Pinelopi K. Goldberg, Costas Meghir, and Gabriel Ulyssea (2021). “Trade and Informality in the Presence of Labor Market Frictions and Regulations.” NBER Working Paper 28391.
  • Donaldson, Dave (2018). "Railroads of the Raj: Estimating the Impact of Transportation Infrastructure." American Economic Review 108: 899-934.
  • Atkin, David, and Dave Donaldson (2015). “Who's Getting Globalized? The Size and Implications of Intra-national Trade Costs.” NBER Working Paper 21439.
  • Donaldson, D. and Hornbeck, R. (2016). “Railroads and American Economic Growth: A “Market Access” Approach.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 131(2), 799–858. 
  • Ahlfeldt GM, Redding SJ, Sturm DM, Wolf N. (2015). “The Economics of Density: Evidence from the Berlin Wall.” Econometrica 83: 2127-89.
  • Gharad Bryan, Edward Glaeser, Nick Tsivanidis (2020). “Cities in the Developing World.” Annual Review of Economics 12: 273-297.
  • Tsivanidis, Nick (2019). "Evaluating the Impact of Urban Transit Infrastructure: Evidence from Bogota’s Transmilenio." Mimeo.
  • Adão, R., Arkolakis, C. and Esposito, F. (2020). “General Equilibrium Indirect Effects in Space: Theory and Measurement.” Mimeo.
  • Adão, R., Kolesár, M. and Morales, E. (2019). “Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 134(4), 1949–2010.
  • Borusyak, K., and Hull, P. (2021). “Non-Random Exposure to Exogenous Shocks: Theory and Applications.” Mimeo.
  • Borusyak, K., Hull, P. and Jaravel, X. (2020). “Quasi-Experimental Shift-Share Research Designs.” Review of Economic Studies (forthcoming).
  • Adão, R., Carrillo, P., Costinot, A., Donaldson, D. and Pomeranz, D. (2020). “Exports, Imports, and Earnings Inequality: Micro-Data and Macro-Lessons from Ecuador.” Mimeo .
  • Adão, R., Costinot, A. and Donaldson, D. (2017). “Nonparametric Counterfactual Predictions in Neoclassical Models of International Trade.” American Economic Review 107: 633–689. 
  • Arkolakis, C., Costinot, A. and Rodríguez-Clare, A. (2012). “New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?” American Economic Review 102: 94-130. 
  • Baqaee, D. R. and Farhi, E. (2021). “Networks, Barriers, and Trade.” Mimeo.
  • Borusyak, K. and Jaravel, X. (2021). “The Distributional Effects of Trade: Theory and Evidence from the United States.” Mimeo .

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International Migration and International Trade

This paper surveys key developments in the theory of international migration and international trade, and provides a few stylized facts. International migration, in many important cases, such as cross-country differences in productivity, can be a complement to international flows of commodities. In the presence of a productivity difference that is generated by an external economy effect of human, capital physical capital has weak incentives to flow from developed to underdeveloped countries while pressures for international migration from poor to rich countries are strong. The balancing factors underlying an efficient global dispersion of population are those which generate advantages to size, such as public goods, or increasing returns to scale on one hand, and those which generate disadvantages to size, such as immobile factors or congestion effects in the utilization of public services, on the other hand. The modem welfare state typically redistribute income from the rich to the poor in a way which attracts poor migrants from the less developed countries. Since migration could impose a toll on the redistribution policy of the Developed Country it may benefit from the extension of foreign aid to the Less Developed Country if this aid serves to finance a subsidy to workers in the Less Developed Country, thereby containing migration.

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DISSERTATION. International Trade And Its Impact On The Global Economy

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2019, International Trade and Its Impact on the Global Economy

Abstract With regard to the theories of growth, the flow of trade has a significance in determination of the rate of economic growth because trade allows the progress of technology in a region that ends up playing a crucial role in productions and gains of competition. This eventually fosters both the development and growth of a given economy. However, there are several arguments that claim that only trade cannot bring about economic growth and development and thus there are other factors like the political stability, the extent to which the rule of law is enforced, the population growth rate and the level of secondary and tertiary enrolment among other critical issues. The main goal of this Dissertation is to provide an extensive study of international trade and also ascertain the impact that it exerts on the global economy by narrowing down to regional, multilateral and bilateral trade agreements and their effects. The study also provides current data and information about the trends in international trade like the Brexit and the US-China trade war that are all affecting the economic growth of respective regions. Key words: International trade, economic growth, trade openness, global economy

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The objective of the study is to examine the differential impact of trade on economic growth among ECOWAS and Non-ECOWAS countries from 2000 – 2015. To achieve this objective, the study used secondary data sourced from the World Bank Data Base on Macroeconomic Indicators and Selected Statistics on African Countries an Annual Publication of African Development Bank. GDP was used as a proxy for economic growth while import, export, and foreign exchange rate as proxies for international trade. The data obtained were subjected to the following diagnostic tests; Unit root test, Co-integration test and Granger causality test as well as Error Correction Mechanism before the model was estimated. The estimated model was also subjected to statistical and econometric tests like t-test, goodness of fit, and f-test to determine its policy implications. E-views 10.0 and STATA Econometric Software Version 14.2 were used to estimate the model. Ordinary Least Square Multiple Regression Analysis was conducted with the aim of establishing if there is differential impact of international trade among ECOWAS and Non-ECOWAS countries using the variables in the study or otherwise. The study selected six ECOWAS and six Non-ECOWAS countries based on the availability of data. The study reveals that international trade drives economic growth in both ECOWAS and Non-ECOWAS countries. Comparatively, international trade promotes economic growth more in the Non-ECOWAS countries than the ECOWAS countries. The study recommends that ECOWAS countries need to borrow a leaf from their Non-ECOWAS countries in terms of trade enhancing policies. This is because the Non-ECOWAS countries benefit more from trade than the ECOWAS countries. Key words: Differential impact of trade, Economic growth, International trade.

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    Title: Optimal regulation and the law of international trade : a law & economics analysis of the WTO law on domestic regulation Author (s): RIGOD, Boris Date: 2014 Citation: Florence : European University Institute, 2014 Type: Thesis Series/Number: EUI; LAW; PhD Thesis Abstract: Background: Conflicts between domestic regulatory preferences and ...

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    A DISSERTATION HAS BEEN APPROVED BY THE ASSESSMENT BOARD ON JULY 8th 2021. T OF BREXIT ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE WITH A REFLECTION ON THE DISPUTES RESOLUTION"AbstractThis study examin. s the options for future trade relations between the European Union and the United Kingdom. Further, this stu.

  14. Topics in International Economics

    PhD Skills Development Module, Term 2. Outline. This module offers an overview of several active areas of research in international trade. It introduces frontier topics, insights, and tools, with the goal of preparing PhD students to conduct independent cutting-edge research in the field, as well as in adjacent fields where ideas and techniques from international trade may be useful, such as ...

  15. Dissertations.se: INTERNATIONAL TRADE

    Search for dissertations about: "International Trade". Showing result 1 - 5 of 225 swedish dissertations containing the words International Trade. 1. Essays on International Trade : Theory and Evidence on the Determinants and Implications of Firms' Import Behaviour. Abstract : This thesis aspires to further contribute to our understanding of ...

  16. Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'International trade policy'

    Consult the top 50 dissertations / theses for your research on the topic 'International trade policy.'. Next to every source in the list of references, there is an 'Add to bibliography' button. Press on it, and we will generate automatically the bibliographic reference to the chosen work in the citation style you need: APA, MLA, Harvard ...

  17. PDF Essays on International Trade, Growth and Finance

    Essays on International Trade, Growth and Finance by Marc-Andreas Muendler GRAD (University of Munich, Germany) 1998 M.A. (Boston University) 1997 A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Economics in the GRADUATE DIVISION of the UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY Committee ...

  18. FIU Digital Commons

    FIU Digital Commons | Florida International University Research

  19. Dissertations & Theses

    Over the last 80 years, ProQuest has built the world's most comprehensive and renowned dissertations program. ProQuest Dissertations & Theses Global (PQDT Global), continues to grow its repository of 5 million graduate works each year, thanks to the continued contribution from the world's universities, creating an ever-growing resource of emerging research to fuel innovation and new insights.

  20. International Migration and International Trade

    DOI 10.3386/w4230. Issue Date December 1992. This paper surveys key developments in the theory of international migration and international trade, and provides a few stylized facts. International migration, in many important cases, such as cross-country differences in productivity, can be a complement to international flows of commodities.

  21. (DOC) DISSERTATION. International Trade And Its Impact On The Global

    Cilliers starts by exploring the modern history of international trade and the importance of trade to economic growth and global cooperation. The chapter then provides an overview of Africa's trading partners, the need for greater regional integration in the continent and the challenges to achieving intra-regional cooperation.

  22. Dissertations / Theses: 'International Trade Law and Policy ...

    Consult the top 50 dissertations / theses for your research on the topic 'International Trade Law and Policy.'. Next to every source in the list of references, there is an 'Add to bibliography' button. Press on it, and we will generate automatically the bibliographic reference to the chosen work in the citation style you need: APA, MLA, Harvard ...

  23. (PDF) (PhD thesis) International trade and economic growth in the

    Abstract. PhD thesis, May 17 2013. The research focuses on the influence of international trade on the Early Modern development of the Austrian Netherlands. It centres on key commodities such as ...