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Using school systems as a hub for risk and disaster management: a case study of greece.

1. Introduction

1.1. theoretical review, 1.1.1. education based civil protection in emergency preparedness, 1.1.2. rationale for disaster risk reduction through school settings, 1.1.3. schools system in improving disaster risk reduction, 1.2. research gap, 2. research methodology, 2.1. problem statement, 2.2. purpose of the study.

• To establish the effect of school curriculum on disaster risk management in schools.
• To explore the effect of civil protection knowledge acquisition on disaster risk management in schools.
• What is the effect of school curriculum on disaster risk management in schools?
• What is the effect of civil protection knowledge acquisition on disaster risk management in schools?

2.3. Research Design, Target Population, and Data Collection

2.4. data analysis, 3.1. demographic characteristics, 3.2. descriptive analysis, 3.3. regression analysis, hypotheses testing, 4. discussion, 5. conclusions, author contributions, institutional review board statement, informed consent statement, data availability statement, conflicts of interest.

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Kalogiannidis, S.; Toska, E.; Chatzitheodoridis, F.; Kalfas, D. Using School Systems as a Hub for Risk and Disaster Management: A Case Study of Greece. Risks 2022 , 10 , 89. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks10050089

Kalogiannidis S, Toska E, Chatzitheodoridis F, Kalfas D. Using School Systems as a Hub for Risk and Disaster Management: A Case Study of Greece. Risks . 2022; 10(5):89. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks10050089

Kalogiannidis, Stavros, Ermelinda Toska, Fotios Chatzitheodoridis, and Dimitrios Kalfas. 2022. "Using School Systems as a Hub for Risk and Disaster Management: A Case Study of Greece" Risks 10, no. 5: 89. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks10050089

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• Published: 05 January 2024

Informing disaster-risk management policies for education infrastructure using scenario-based recovery analyses

• Eyitayo A. Opabola   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-7598-4812 1 &
• Carmine Galasso   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-5445-4911 2  

Nature Communications volume  15 , Article number:  325 ( 2024 ) Cite this article

4367 Accesses

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• Developing world
• Natural hazards

Recent natural-hazard events have shown that post-disaster education continuity is still a significant global challenge. Here, we propose a methodology to support various stakeholders in quantifying the impact of disaster management policies on education continuity in low- and lower-middle-income countries. We then apply the proposed methodology to a hypothetical earthquake scenario impacting a testbed education infrastructure in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. This case study accounts for local practice influencing recovery through interviews with stakeholders involved in post-disaster management in the region. The analyses reveal that early response financing mechanisms can help speed up education recovery by a factor of three. Also, community-managed school reconstruction projects are likely to be completed up to three to five times faster than agency-managed projects. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the framework can be used to prioritize school reconstruction projects to ensure inclusive education continuity at the community level.

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Introduction.

Despite advances in natural-hazard risk understanding, modeling and quantification, and global initiatives to reduce disaster risk to the education sector 1 , many countries remain highly exposed to school infrastructure physical damage and severe education disruption from natural hazards. This is especially valid for low- and lower-middle-income countries (as defined by the World Bank 2 ). For example, nearly 5000 schools were destroyed following the 2010 moment magnitude 7.0 (M7.0) Haiti earthquake 3 . Over 9000 school buildings and 35,000 classrooms were significantly affected by the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal, with another 7000 schools requiring reconstruction 4 . Natural-hazard-induced physical damage to school buildings, neighboring infrastructure systems, and communities can significantly disrupt education. For example, school closures due to damage and/or inaccessibility affected the education continuity of about 184,000 and one million school pupils in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia (following the 2018 M7.5 earthquake and tsunami) and Nepal (following the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha earthquake), respectively 5 , 6 .

Schools can play a vital role in disaster preparedness, response, and recovery 7 , 8 , 9 . For example, in a pre-disaster setting, school facilities can be used as sites for disaster-preparedness learning activities. In post-disaster scenarios, schools can serve as relief centers, supply, storage, and communication hubs. Hence, community resilience relies on the ability of schools to have efficient disaster preparedness, response, and recovery management strategies. Such recovery management strategies must also ensure post-disaster school continuity.

Several studies have highlighted the importance of post-disaster school continuity. There are various unintended social and economic consequences of education disruption to schools, students, teachers, their families, and the community at large. For example, evidence 6 , 10 shows that out-of-school children are susceptible to various forms of exploitation (including child labor) and violence (especially in temporary camps), with severe effects on children’s long-term development. In addition, it has been reported that education disruption in school children may lead to long-term reduced physical and mental health, leading to a loss of productivity and earnings in adulthood 11 , 12 . The socioeconomic conditions of staff of closed schools may also be negatively impacted if they need to find alternative jobs (in an already chaotic post-disaster situation) to make ends meet. Also, parents (and carers) may have to spend time off work to take care of their children, resulting in a significant productivity loss for the economy 13 as well as well-being losses for them 14 . For nations, the combined influence of education disruption on school children, staff, and their families results in up to a 6% loss in future gross domestic product 15 , 16 , 17 . Hence, post-disaster education continuity must be a priority for any nation.

There are two distinct domains of post-disaster school recovery necessary for education continuity—physical and non-physical. The former is related to the conditions of the physical infrastructure (e.g., classrooms, laboratories, water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) facilities, power, and water utilities). The non-physical domain, for instance, is associated with the post-disaster management structure and psychosocial recovery of school children and staff 18 , 19 , 20 . Poorly managed disaster-induced psychological disorders can influence changes in behavior, memory, and development of school children 21 ; thereby impacting education continuity. There are linkages between the physical and non-physical (especially psychosocial) domains of school recovery. As emphasized by past events, prolonged stay in temporary housing settlements and delayed recovery in school physical infrastructure can impact the long-term psychosocial well-being of school children 19 . We note that our study focuses on the analytical modeling of the physical infrastructure domain of school recovery. Additional studies are needed to explore the efficient integration of physical and non-physical domains of school recovery in analytical recovery modeling frameworks.

The 2015–2030 Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 22 calls for enhanced disaster risk governance for effective response and the need to “Build Back Better” in sustainable recovery, reconstruction, and rehabilitation. Furthermore, Goal #4 of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development advocates for inclusive education continuity for all 23 . Due to the high physical vulnerability of school infrastructure and the social vulnerability of school children, it is crucial to ensure that sensible policies enhancing post-disaster education continuity are in place. However, various studies have highlighted that governments do not generally prioritize post-disaster education continuity, leading to severe education disruption or even termination. For example, many school children dropped out due to unavailable school infrastructure following the 2018 Central Sulawesi earthquake 24 .

In comparison with recovery modeling studies on other infrastructure systems (e.g., residential and business building stock 25 , hospitals 26 , utility networks 27 ), fewer research studies have been carried out on post-disaster recovery of physical education infrastructure. We also note that post-disaster recovery modeling frameworks cannot be generic because building functionality strongly depends on the specific occupancy type. For example, a moderately damaged residential building may be suitable as a shelter-in-place (meaning occupants are not entirely displaced). However, a similarly damaged building might be unsuitable for learning purposes.

On the qualitative side, various resilience-enhancing policies for school infrastructures have been proposed by different studies in recent years 28 , 29 . Quantitative studies on the resilience of physical education infrastructure started gaining widespread attention in recent years. Available quantitative studies are either field-data-based or simulation-based. Field-based studies 30 , 31 , 32 , 33 have emphasized the prolonged post-disaster school reconstruction process and its negative influence on education continuity. The former has been attributed to funding delays, contract issues, the use of schools as temporary shelters by local communities, political setting, land acquisition issues (in cases where school relocation is needed), inaccessible roads for transporting materials to remote locations, management type (i.e., community-managed or agency-managed projects), lack of skilled labor, and flawed planning processes.

Studies have proposed simulation-based probabilistic frameworks to simulate the post-disaster recovery of education systems. Some of these studies 34 , 35 have developed probabilistic frameworks to simulate the post-disaster recovery trajectory of school infrastructure. However, these studies do not consider the influence of the previously mentioned sociocultural, technical, economic, environmental, and political factors that significantly influence the recovery trajectory of schools in marginalized communities, particularly in low- and lower-middle-income countries. This may be attributed to the fact that such studies are primarily designed to target developed communities (e.g., the USA). Hence, the applicability of such frameworks to tackle a wide range of multi-dimensional issues within a marginalized community may be limited. Herein, we define marginalized communities as groups that experience discrimination and exclusion, especially in pre-disaster mitigation and post-disaster recovery management policies, because of unequal power relationships across social, economic, political, and cultural dimensions.

Fewer studies have sought to contribute to post-disaster recovery modeling in lower-middle-income countries. For example, Alisjahbana et al. 36 developed an optimization approach for school reconstruction scheduling by minimizing the sum of the distance all students in the region have to travel until all schools in the region are reconstructed. However, it is noted that this approach’s applicability is limited when critical issues such as land availability, construction site accessibility, and school level can influence reconstruction projects. Hence, a multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) approach that accounts for the influence of various factors on school reconstruction prioritization is needed.

We aim to contribute to the field of critical infrastructure resilience by (1) proposing a post-disaster recovery modeling approach for education systems; (2) demonstrating how the proposed approach can support stakeholders in quantifying the impact of policies (such as early response financing mechanisms and recovery management type) on education continuity. Our proposed framework explicitly incorporates an approach to account for sociocultural, technical, economic, environmental, and political factors influencing the sustainable recovery of school physical infrastructure in low and lower-middle-income countries. First, the recovery time estimation module accounts for various recovery enhancing and impeding factors through a stochastic Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), which enables users to simulate desired levels of pessimism/optimism on each task in the recovery process. Furthermore, the proposed approach embeds a novel MCDM module for intervention prioritization, which accounts for factors such as available intervention budget, land availability, reliance on temporary learning centers (TLCs), age group of students, enabling decision-makers to better account for many factors/criteria that impact recovery in marginalized communities and for their preferences towards those criteria. We first summarize the modeling approach. Then, we adopt a case-study application to demonstrate how end users can use the proposed framework to identify policies for enhanced educational resilience to disasters. For this purpose, a testbed school infrastructure system is developed from a database of schools in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia 37 , and is subjected to a hypothetical M7.0 earthquake event. The case study in this paper benefits from insights into the recovery process following the 2018 Central Sulawesi earthquake from engagement with multiple stakeholders under the auspices of the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI)-funded ‘Resilient School Hubs’ project. The project was approved by the University College London research ethics committee (UCL Ethics Project ID Number: ID280898). The case-study application clearly shows the benefit of early response financing mechanisms on education recovery. Furthermore, the case study highlights the need for NGOs to rethink their approach to collaboration with host communities during the post-disaster recovery process.

Post-disaster recovery modeling framework

The proposed methodology combines five distinct modules to evaluate the probabilistic post-disaster recovery trajectory of school infrastructure. The interdependence of education and utility lifelines (e.g., water and power networks) is not discussed here because (1) past events have shown that utility networks are quickly fixed following disasters 38 ; (2) due to climate conditions and architecture (i.e., large windows), most schools in tropical countries are not significantly dependent on the power supply; and (3) some of these schools in tropical countries rely mainly on local wells, not municipal water networks 39 . Interested readers are referred to other studies 40 for more information on simulating the interdependence of buildings and utility lifelines.

The first module of the proposed framework entails a hazard analysis to simulate the local hazard intensity measures (e.g., earthquake-induced ground shaking, flood-induced water depth, typhoon-induced wind speeds) at each school-building location for a particular hazard scenario (i.e., a given event). The hazard analysis adequately accounts for the spatial distribution of the intensities throughout the region of interest. The second module of the proposed framework is a post-disaster functionality assessment, which entails simulating the damage state of each school building conditioned on the site-specific hazard intensity measure. Then, each school’s resulting post-disaster functionality level can be estimated depending on the damaged state of each building. The primary functionality indicator considered in this study is education continuity. According to the Comprehensive School Safety (CSS) Targets and Indicators developed by the Global Alliance for Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience in the Education Sector (GADRRRES) 41 , the main post-disaster education continuity indicators include: (1) duration of disaster-induced school closure; (2) the number of students displaced from schools; and (3) number of students in TLCs. In line with the CSS indicators, we define functionality level as the proportion of students with continued access to education (either in a permanent or temporary learning center). For each school, this is estimated as the ratio of students with safe and occupiable classrooms to the total number of students in the school. The third module is a decision-making analysis used to assess the feasibility of education continuity in schools using rapid response strategies such as class scheduling, construction/availability of TLCs, and transfer of displaced students to neighboring schools. These rapid mechanisms’ feasibility depends on government policies, available finance mechanisms, and other socioeconomic and political factors. The fourth module accounts for the fact that, in many cases, decision-makers want to achieve competing goals under rigid constraints on time, budget, and workforce to decide on school intervention prioritization. Also, other factors, such as the availability and residual lifespan of temporary school structures, the proximity of displaced pupils to neighboring schools with full functionality, and the number of displaced pupils, are essential. Hence, the fourth module is a MCDM analysis (accounting for the factors above) for intervention prioritization in schools with reduced functionality levels. Lastly, the fifth module is a recovery model used for simulating the recovery time of each damaged school building, accounting for the influence of sociocultural, technical, economic, environmental, and political conditions on post-disaster recovery.

The probabilistic post-disaster recovery analysis generates realizations of recovery trajectories ( Q(t) ), quantifying how quickly the functionality is restored (rapidity) from the initial post-disaster functionality level Q o , and the functionality recovery time t R (Fig.  1 ). The model details are provided in the “Methods”.

Q pre is the pre-disaster functionality level; Q o is the initial post-disaster functionality level immediately after the event (i.e., at time t 0 ). The recovery time t R is the time to restore full functionality to the system. Given that the analysis is probabilistic, the generated recovery trajectory is also probabilistic in nature (i.e., multiple realizations of the recovery trajectory are simulated).

Post-disaster functionality in the testbed community

Although the proposed framework is general and can be applied to any natural hazard of interest, we specifically consider the post-disaster recovery of a community of 80 schools subjected to a significant earthquake event (Fig.  2 ). The attributes of the schools (including population, location, and building characteristics) are heavily based on the extensive database of 2500 schools collected by the authors in Central Sulawesi 42 . The selected 80 schools represent the number of schools within two districts. The decision to select a relatively small testbed is based on the concept that disaster management decisions are generally made at the local government level 43 . Furthermore, the small testbed enables the visualization of the impact of each considered policy at the building level rather than considering low-resolution information over a large grid area. We note that the Central Sulawesi region is prone to cascading hazards. Given the focus of the case study on earthquake-induced ground shaking, the main testbed selection criteria are the low potential for earthquake-induced cascading hazards (e.g., liquefaction, landslides, and tsunami) and the reliability of available information on the schools. An inter-rater analysis was used to assess the reliability of the available information 42 .

a The map of Central Sulawesi showing Palu City, Sigi, Donggala, and Parigi Mountong regencies. The hypothetical fault is shown with a dashed line. b The relative location of all 80 schools in the testbed. c The distribution of the number of stories, age level, and design era of school buildings is shown at the bottom left. Pre-code and post-code buildings were constructed before and after the SNI 1726:2012 44 building code. Credit: Imagery ©2023 TerraMetrics, Map data: Google ©2023.

A total of 280 school buildings are in the selected 80 schools. The 280 school buildings serve 17,055 pupils from the considered community. Of the 80 schools, 51 are primary, and 29 are secondary (Fig.  2 ). In addition, 89% and 11% are one- and two-story buildings, respectively. The one-story and two-story buildings are confined masonry and infilled reinforced concrete frame buildings, respectively. In addition, 75% and 25% of buildings are assumed to be designed/built pre- and post- the updated Indonesian seismic code (SNI 1726:2012) 44 , respectively. The number of buildings in the 80 schools ranges from one to nine, with a median of three and a standard deviation of 1.4. The average pupil population in each school building is 61, with a standard deviation of 16.5. For this study, we assume that all schools are state-owned and the same policies apply to all. We note that the boundary around the 80 schools in Fig.  2 is hypothetical (to guarantee the anonymity of each specific school).

The case study is carried out for an M7.0 earthquake scenario assumed to occur on a hypothetical North-Northwest-South-Southeast (NNW-SSE) trending strike-slip fault (Fig.  2 ). A V s30 of 300 m/s is assumed for the entire community. One thousand realizations of spatially cross-correlated intensity measures (IMs) (i.e., spectral accelerations) at the building locations (and for the building fundamental periods of vibration) are generated, as described in the “Hazard Analysis” section of “Methods”. The post-earthquake functionality assessment follows the modeling approach presented above and described in detail in the “Methods”. Building-level fragility models are used for the post-earthquake functionality assessment. Due to the absence of fragility models for schools in Palu, we selected fragility models based on a review of published studies from similar archetypes in South Asia and globally 45 , 46 , 47 . Based on expert judgment, we concluded that the fragility models from these countries could be adopted in Palu. In addition, we note that the study aims to showcase the proposed framework using realistic input data and discuss the relative effect of various disaster-risk management policies rather than perform a detailed/realistic risk assessment. Additional studies are, however, recommended to develop fragility models for school buildings in Central Sulawesi.

Development of case-study scenarios

We now demonstrate how the proposed framework can support stakeholders with disaster management planning by quantifying the influence of various policies on the disaster recovery of their education infrastructure. To ensure we address realistic problems, the case-study scenarios were highlighted from focus group discussions and interviews with school principals, NGO officials, government officials, engineers, and contractors involved in the 2018 Central Sulawesi earthquake recovery projects 48 . Information related to the stakeholder engagement exercises (including details of the area of inquiry, stakeholder engagement type, guiding questions, and the number of stakeholders) is available online 48 .

First, school stakeholders noted that insufficient anticipatory funding was a critical factor in the lack of classrooms for school pupils after the 2018 event. Furthermore, several schools had to rely on local and foreign aid to build TLCs. Stakeholders noted that school communities might respond better to disasters if there were tools to forecast the amount of anticipatory funding required.

Another issue highlighted was the delay in reconstructing permanent school buildings in projects handled by NGOs. Due to this delay, almost four years since the earthquake, several schools still use TLCs (typically with a lifespan of 4–5 years). As a result, several schools may be susceptible to increased education discontinuity if TLCs start experiencing damage and loss of functionality.

Lastly, NGO officials discussed that they do not have a systematic method of selecting schools to focus on for their reconstruction projects. The primary criterion considered was the availability of well-cleared land for their projects. Due to delays in NGO projects, this approach may be unfavorable to schools with significant reliance on TLCs, especially if such schools could have otherwise benefitted from other management types (e.g., community-led management).

The subsequent subsections in this paper adopt the three highlighted discussions in demonstrating the applicability of our proposed framework to capture multi-dimensional issues affecting recovery.

Influence of available early response financing mechanisms on education continuity

The most appropriate way to achieve a desirable post-disaster education continuity level is through the effective retrofit/reconstruction of school buildings in a pre-disaster scenario. However, several school buildings will remain vulnerable due to a lack of financial resources and sufficient technical know-how to identify disaster-prone structures. A helpful way for local authorities to plan for post-disaster education continuity is through early response financing mechanisms 49 . Such funding can be used for interventions such as repairing and retrofitting damaged school buildings, constructing TLCs, and buying relevant learning materials.

Using the proposed framework, we demonstrate how local authorities can estimate a given school’s education continuity recovery trajectory (through the construction of TLCs), accounting for the uncertainties involved in the process. We assumed that because they are ‘makeshift’ structures (i.e., tents), TLCs are typically non-engineered and do not require skilled labor or heavy equipment for their construction. Hence, the technical factors that affect the construction of permanent structures (where building permits are needed, the tender process may be necessary, and lack of building materials and technical know-how are more influential) are not significant for TLCs. Although not considered in this analysis, we note that the proposed methodology can capture the influence of other recovery-impeding factors on the construction of TLCs.

Engagement with the school principals 48 showed that some schools could carry out immediate post-disaster intervention using anticipatory funding set aside from the school operational assistance funding (locally referred to as Bantuan Operasional Sekolah (BOS)) provided by the government. More information on BOS can be found online 50 . We observed that not all schools had this anticipatory funding, which impacted their recovery.

Figure  3 illustrates two cases of available anticipatory funding for the schools subjected to the considered M7.0 scenario for the median IM realization. The first is a case where 45% of the 80 schools have anticipatory funding. Without any model to simulate the capability of principals to set aside anticipatory funding, we randomly assigned anticipatory funding to 36 schools in the testbed. In reality, such data can be collected by surveying school principals in a region of interest. Based on field data from the 2018 Palu earthquake, we assume that the average time to construct a TLC with early finance mechanisms is 40 days after the disaster. Using a time mitigation factor of 0.5 (i.e., for community participaton - described in “Methods”), the optimistic time a is taken as 20 days. The pessimistic time b is taken as 80 days by assuming a time amplification factor, associated with delay in material procurement, of 2.0. The most likely time m is taken as the average of the sum of a and b (see discussions in “Methods”). For schools without access to early response financing mechanisms, we assume that a , m , and b are further amplified by a factor of 2.0 (i.e., due to delays in funds disbursement) – i.e., a  = 40 days, m  = 100 days, and b  = 160 days. As shown in Fig.  3a , in a case where only 45% of the 80 schools have early response financing mechanisms, only a small fraction of the schools can ensure education continuity within two months, and the remaining schools may need to rely on foreign aid to construct TLCs, resulting in an undesirable recovery rapidity level. On the other hand, sufficient anticipatory funding (i.e., all 80 schools have anticipatory funding) allows all the damaged school buildings to be immediately replaced by TLCs. For the case-study community, we show that sufficient anticipatory funding can reduce the recovery time for education continuity (through rapid construction of TLCs) by a factor of up to three.

a The effect of minimal anticipatory funding (i.e., only 45% of all schools have funding); b the effect of sufficient anticipatory funding (i.e., all schools have funding). The dashed boxes show the influence range of the funding mechanisms.

One of the advantages of this scenario analysis is that local authorities can easily use a target hazard scenario, given the vulnerabilities of schools in their communities, to plan for sufficient early response financing for TLC construction while still making pre-disaster efforts to mitigate the vulnerabilities of the schools (e.g., retrofitting).

Influence of management type on the reconstruction time for permanent school buildings

The government, NGOs (both local and international), or the host communities typically provide/contribute to post-disaster school reconstruction project funding. Post-disaster recovery reports 33 in major global disasters show that most permanent school-building reconstruction projects are either community- or agency-managed. The community-managed approach is a locally implemented approach where the construction management (e.g., material acquisition, selection of building contractors) is led by local authorities, school management committees, or host community leaders. The agency-managed approach is a case where a government or non-government entity leads the construction management.

Several field-based comparative studies 33 , 48 , 51 , 52 , 53 , 54 have highlighted the successes and weaknesses of community-managed and agency-managed reconstruction projects (residential and school buildings) in lower-middle-income countries. For example, the abundance of local knowledge and experience positively influences the recovery process of community-managed projects and achieves higher beneficiary satisfaction. Also, the fact that the drivers of community-managed projects (i.e., local authorities, school management committees, or host community leaders) typically reside in the communities is a strong motivation to ensure higher quality and rapidity in reconstruction projects. On the other hand, the agency-managed approach has been described as a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach intended to suit donors and implementing agencies and rarely involves the target beneficiaries 51 , 52 . Typically, agency-managed projects are subjected to delays resulting from internal bureaucracy, agreements with the local authorities, community, and school authorities, and the lengthy bidding process for engineers and contractors. Nevertheless, regardless of the management type, a given time is spent on damage assessment, clearing the site of rubbles (or identifying a relocation site), getting the relevant building permits, and so on. We note that principal interviews and focus group discussions with key stakeholders (engineers, contractors, government, and NGO officials) 48 actively involved in the recovery process of the post-2018 Palu earthquake highlighted significant delays of agency-managed projects in Palu.

Considering all these impeding factors in the recovery modeling framework, the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the simulated post-disaster reconstruction time for a school building from community- and agency-managed projects can be assessed as presented in Fig. 4 . We explicitly account for the influence of delayed bidding process, internal bureaucracy on the bidding, and construction mobilization of agency-managed projects through recovery time amplification factors described in “Methods”. In line with the earlier discussions, these challenges are assumed to be less prominent in community-managed projects and are not considered in the recovery time modeling process (See Table 2 ). In a pre-disaster scenario, the required time to construct a typical one-story school building in Palu is 4–6 months 48 (see “Methods” for more information). As shown in Fig.  4 , community-managed projects, on average, would be completed more than two times slower than in a pre-disaster scenario.

Simulated cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the reconstruction time for community-managed (median of 310 days) and agency-managed (median of 860 days) projects. The reconstruction times in the testbed community are estimated using the recovery time model presented in Eqs. ( 3 )–( 5 ). The CDF accounts for recovery-impeding (i.e., time amplification) factors that may influence both community- and agency-managed projects. The community-managed school building projects have a lower median recovery time because of little to no internal bureaucratic issues, more coordinated arrangements with relevant stakeholders, and little to no delay in a contract bidding process in these types of projects. The range of completion times for community-managed building reconstruction in 16 schools in Palu (after the 2018 earthquake) is shown in the blue box. The green and cyan lines show the start and contract termination date for one of the prominent NGOs handling reconstruction projects in over 20 schools in Palu 48 .

We note that we interviewed 16 school principals with reconstruction projects in their schools and discovered that the completion time ranged from 180 to 400 days 48 . This range is effectively captured in Fig.  4 , providing some evidence of the validity of our proposed framework. We can compare the observed recovery time of collapsed buildings in Palu with the simulated recovery time because the recovery time models are conditioned on the post-earthquake damage state and not the earthquake scenario (i.e., ground-motion intensities).

On the other hand, as shown in Fig.  4 , agency-managed projects are likely to be completed 2–4 years after the disaster. We also assessed ongoing agency-managed reconstruction projects in Palu by interviewing NGO officials and contractors. For an unnamed NGO with a significant number of school reconstruction projects in the Palu region, most reconstruction sites have not yet been reached four years after the disaster. More details are provided in Opabola et al. 48 . Hence, constructing permanent structures in those schools may take up to five years or more.

A key recommendation from this case study is that the government needs to understand that agency-managed projects may be delayed. As such, local authorities may only consider allowing NGOs to manage the reconstruction of schools that a prolonged reconstruction process would impact less. Further discussions on this are provided in the subsequent case study scenario. Furthermore, the efficiency of agency-managed projects can be improved through more trust and collaboration with local communities. For example, NGOs may choose to disburse funds to support efficient community-managed reconstruction projects rather than manage projects themselves.

Accounting for the influence of sociocultural, environmental, and political on the recovery process

Apart from the typical technical and financial delays in the recovery process, sociocultural, environmental, and political issues may impede or speed up recovery. For example, following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, recovery projects in conflict zones in Sri Lanka were eight times slower than in areas without conflicts 55 . Being able to account for such sociocultural and political factors can enable local authorities to understand how existing issues could further impede recovery in their zones. The proposed methodology accounts for these conditions through amplification factors calibrated using data from past events. These factors are applied to the relevant intervention process, as described in the “Methods” section.

Using the proposed methodology, we explore how a combination of sociocultural, environmental, and political issues can influence the average reconstruction time for community-managed and agency-managed projects. Five factors were considered—(1) hostile political conditions; (2) pandemic; (3) land disputes (for relocation projects); (4) poor management skills of contractors; (5) a combination of land disputes and poor management skills of contractors. For this analysis, the average mobilization and inspection time for the community- and agency-managed projects are combined with time amplification factors using Eqs. ( 3 )–( 5 ) in a probabilistic manner (see description in “Methods”).

Figure  5 presents the output of the probabilistic analysis and shows how various sociocultural, environmental, and political conditions can impede school reconstruction projects. For the considered scenarios, hostile political conditions resulted in the longest recovery time for permanent school buildings. As shown in Fig 5 , the estimated median recovery time for reconstructing a damaged school building is significantly influenced by the management type and the considered recovery impeding factors. For the considered scenarios, hostile political conditions resulted in the longest recovery time for permanent school buildings. For example, local authorities may decide to encourage only community-managed projects in regions with hostile political conditions based on the information presented in Fig. 5 .

The following amplification factors ( β ) were used in the simulation: hostile political conditions ( β  = 5.0); pandemic ( β  = 3.0); land dispute ( β  = 2.0); poor management skills of contractors ( β  = 3.0); a combination of land dispute and poor management skills of contractors ( β  = 3.0). The time amplification factors used in simulating the influence of these conditions in Eqs. ( 3 )–( 5 ) are based on Supplementary Table  3 . For each of the five scenarios, the optimistic time ( a ) was estimated using a time mitigation factor of 0.5, while the pessimistic time ( b ) is based on the upper-bound values of the time amplification factors in Supplementary Table  3 , and m (most likely time) is taken as 0.5( a + b ).

Influence of decision-makers’ preferences on school reconstruction prioritization

As mentioned earlier, during the interviews, NGO officials involved in reconstruction projects discussed the lack of a systematic methodology for developing a school reconstruction prioritization list. The proposed framework includes a MCDM module that can support the government or NGOs in creating such a school reconstruction prioritization list. However, it is noted that the prioritization list depends on the weights decision-makers append to each criterion. Therefore, criteria weights for developing the prioritization list are selected based on subjective judgment. Nevertheless, decision-makers can use our methodology to perform sensitivity analyses and see how the prioritization hierarchy fluctuates for a given suite of criteria weights.

Figure  6 describes a case study where decision-makers are interested in four criteria (described in “Methods”) and three scenarios. The first scenario is where the decision-makers consider the level of a school’s reliance on TLCs as the primary criterion for identifying schools that need to be prioritized for permanent structures’ (re)construction. The second scenario examines a case where affordability is considered the most important criterion, while the third scenario looks at a case where all four criteria are equally weighted (i.e., zero bias).

Scenario 1 is a case where decision-makers consider the level of a school’s reliance on temporary learning centers as the primary criterion for identifying schools that need to be prioritized for permanent structures’ (re)construction. Scenario 2 is a case where affordability is considered the most important criterion, while Scenario 3 looks at a case where all four criteria are equally weighted.

Figure  7a looks at defined performance metrics for the 15 damaged schools with average post-disaster functionality lower than 0.33. Further discussions on how the criteria and performance metrics are defined are provided in “Methods”. Using the proposed approach, Fig.  7b provides the reconstruction prioritization hierarchy for each scenario. As shown in Fig.  7b , the selected weights significantly influence the list. As shown in Fig.  7a , School 15 is an elementary school that relies heavily on temporary structures, but the reconstruction project would take 27% of the available budget. For scenario 1 (preference for schools relying on temporary structures), School 15 gets prioritized (Fig.  7b ). However, in scenario 2 where the decision-makers choose not to prioritize the most capital-intensive projects, School 15 drops in the prioritization order. The MCDM can enable decision-makers to visualize whether their bias (reflected in criteria weights) results in inclusive recovery.

a Performance metrics for the 15 damaged schools used in the multicriteria decision-making analysis. b Reconstruction prioritization hierarchy for the 15 damaged schools based on the three considered scenarios. A rank value of one means highest priority and a rank value of 15 means lowest priority. The criteria weights for each scenario are defined in Fig.  6 .

Local authorities can use the reconstruction prioritization list to designate school intervention projects to different management types. For example, schools ranking low in the prioritization list may be designated as agency-managed projects. It is also noted that the ranking list can always be updated by repeating the analyses whenever local authorities update the performance metrics and/or criteria weights.

We recognize that one of the best ways to enhance the resilience of education systems is through appropriate retrofit of existing school buildings before any significant hazard hits. Yet, it is also essential to acknowledge that financial and technical constraints may make reducing the physical vulnerabilities of all existing buildings unrealistic. Moreover, disaster risk reduction is more challenging in low and lower-middle-income countries due to various sociocultural, technical, economic, environmental, and political motivations. Therefore, another approach for enhancing the post-disaster resilience of education systems in low and lower-middle-income countries is through policies that ensure education continuity, accounting for the vulnerabilities of existing building portfolios.

This study presented a novel framework for simulating the probabilistic recovery trajectory of education systems. The proposed framework accounts for the influence of sociocultural, technical, economic, environmental, and political factors on the post-disaster recovery process of education systems. Local authorities can use the proposed framework to quantify the potential efficacy of several policies, given their limited resources and other local issues in their communities.

We demonstrated the application of the proposed methodology to a hypothetical earthquake scenario impacting a testbed of 80 schools developed from a database of schools in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. The analyses reveal that early response financing mechanisms can help speed up education recovery by a factor of three. Also, community-managed school reconstruction projects are likely to be completed up to three to five times faster than agency-managed projects.

While the considered case studies focus on financing mechanisms, (re)construction management type, and the influence of socio-political, environmental, and cultural factors on the recovery process, the framework can also be used to simulate the influence of modular construction, retrofit programs, and increased construction workforce on the community-level resilience of education systems. We note that the results presented in this paper reflect observed patterns from the post-2018 Sulawesi earthquake recovery process in schools in Palu, Sigi, and Donggala (Indonesia). Hence, the proposed methodology can support policy-making exercises by adequately considering disaster-vulnerable communities’ sociocultural, technical, economic, environmental, and political issues.

The proposed methodology and presented results integrate several probabilistic and MCDM analyses to simulate the post-disaster education continuity level and recovery time for education systems at the building- and community levels. The framework flowchart is presented in Fig.  8 . The figure shows that the first three steps are building-level analysis modules, while the remaining are community-level analysis modules. The analytical steps are summarized below.

The first three steps are building-level modules that define the hazard intensity measure, post-disaster functionality level of impacted buildings, and required post-disaster intervention on damaged buildings. The community-level modules define intervention prioritization and recovery trajectory for damaged schools, accounting for technical, environmental, socioeconomic, political, and cultural factors influencing recovery.

Hazard analysis

We derived earthquake-induced ground-motion intensity measures (IMs, herein peak ground accelerations (PGA) and spectral accelerations at 0.2 sec ( S a  (0.2 sec)) for the one- and two-story buildings, respectively) at each school building site using the Campbell and Bozorgnia ground-motion model 56 . Furthermore, we used the Principle Component Analysis approach 57 to generate 1000 realizations of spatially cross-correlated spectral intensities at the building locations.

Post-disaster functionality assessment

For each of the thousand realizations of spatially correlated spectral accelerations, the post-disaster functionality level of each building is simulated. In this process, the post-earthquake damage state of each school building is simulated using fragility models quantifying the probability of an asset exceeding a given level of damage (i.e., none, slight, moderate, extensive, and complete) at different hazard intensity values. Buildings with no and slight damage are classified into functionality level zero (FL0) and one (FL1), respectively, and were assumed to be safe for immediate occupancy. Buildings with moderate damage are classified into FL2 and assumed to be uncollapsed but unsafe for occupancy. Lastly, buildings with extensive and complete damage are classified as FL3. The assumed median fragility estimates (PGA) for the pre-code one-story buildings are 0.2 g , 0.55 g , and 0.60 g for FL1, FL2, and FL3, respectively. The assumed median fragility estimates (PGA) for the post-code one-story buildings are 0.50 g , 0.90 g , and 1.1 g for FL1, FL2, and FL3, respectively. The assumed median fragility estimates ( S a (0.2 sec)) for the pre-code two-story buildings are 0.50 g , 0.90 g , and 1.2 g for FL1, FL2, and FL3, respectively. The assumed median fragility estimates ( S a (0.2 sec)) for the post-code two-story buildings are 1.0 g , 1.85 g , and 2.30 g for FL1, FL2, and FL3, respectively. A lognormal standard deviation of 0.4 was assumed for all fragility models.

The post-disaster functionality of a school s (i.e., the proportion of students with access to a classroom in the school) given a j th  simulated ground-motion IM level resulting from an earthquake scenario EQ is then assessed as:

where \({n}_{{st\_FL}{{{{\mathrm{0,1}}}}}}^{s}\) is the population of students with access to FL0 and FL1 buildings in school s ( s  = 1, 2, ..., 80 for the case study), and \({n}_{{st\_tot}}^{s}\) is the total population of students in school s .

The community-level functionality (i.e., the proportion of students with access to a classroom in the community) given a simulated ground motion IM level resulting from an earthquake scenario EQ ( \({Q}_{0,j}\left|{EQ}\right.\) ) can also be expressed as:

where n s is the number of schools in the community.

The community-level functionality can also be expressed in terms of population as the product of Q o,j , and the total number of students in the community.

Decision-making analysis

Here, we decide on the appropriate intervention phase for school buildings at each functionality level. We assumed that FL0 and FL1 buildings could be occupied during minor repairs to structural and non-structural components. Hence, there is no need for any TLCs. On the other hand, FL3 buildings require the most significant intervention. We assumed that all FL3 would initially be replaced by TLCs, followed by the construction of permanent structures 58 . FL2 buildings are assumed to require temporary closure pending heavy repair and/or strengthening work on damaged components.

Intervention prioritization analysis

The intervention prioritization analysis is needed for developing an intervention prioritization list for damaged schools at the community level. However, in cases where each school makes its decision, this analysis is unnecessary. For example, we did not use the intervention prioritization analysis for the case study on the influence of available finance mechanisms at each school for the construction of TLCs.

The intervention prioritization list is developed in this study using the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) 59 —a MCDM method. MCDM has been adopted in this study because of its popularity and simplicity. It can be easily implemented by relevant decision-makers (e.g., local disaster risk management authorities, education ministries, and international NGOs) 60 . For the sake of brevity, the calculation steps are not shown here. The inputs for the TOPSIS method are the performance metrics and criteria weights. Four criteria are considered based on stakeholder engagement presented in a separate study 48 (See Table  1 ). Aside from the four considered criteria, decision-makers may consider others (e.g., proximity to neighboring schools with available space for new students, school management type—i.e., private- or government-owned). However, we do not consider proximity to neighboring schools in this study because other studies have highlighted the negative impact of school mobility (e.g., lower academic achievement, reduced social interactions, and health and developmental problems) on school children 61 , 62 , 63 .

The first criterion is intervention affordability. This criterion accounts for the fact that decision-makers may be interested in ensuring the available financial resources are spread over a wide range of schools as much as possible. Therefore, the performance metric is defined as the proportion of the reconstruction cost for each school relative to the total available financial budget. In the considered case study, we look at a scenario where the reconstruction cost for the entire school community exceeds the available budget (i.e. sum of all the affordability performance metrics is greater than 1.0).

The second criterion is land availability which accounts for the fact that construction work can only occur if the required landmass is available. For example, prioritizing a reconstruction/relocation project for a school with ongoing local land disputes may not be optimal. A binary metric is adopted here. Values of 0 and 1 are adopted for cases without and with land availability, respectively. For the case study, we randomly assumed that three schools are located where post-disaster school reconstruction projects are prohibited, and the government has yet to sort out relocation logistics (i.e., land acquisition) for these three schools.

The third criterion is the availability of temporary structures. The urgency of permanent reconstruction to replace damaged school structures is related to the availability and lifespan of temporary structures constructed after the disaster. For example, quick (re)construction of buildings for schools without temporary structures is essential to ensure education continuity. Also, in the case of schools with temporary structures, it may be necessary to ensure that newly constructed permanent facilities are available by the end of the lifespan of the temporary structures. Supplementary Table  1 presents performance metrics for ‘reliance on temporary structures’ as a function of the proportion of temporary structures (i.e., percentage of school buildings in the considered school that are temporary structures) and the estimated age of temporary structures at the expected completion of permanent structures. Supplementary Table  1 has been developed with the assumption that the average lifespan of the temporary structures is 4–5 years. In the case study, the estimated age of TLCs at the expected completion date of permanent structures is taken as the median reconstruction time of a permanent school building (i.e., 310 days – see CDF in Fig. 4 ). It is noted that the estimated median reconstruction time is associated with the considered recovery-impeding factors in the case study. For schools requiring more than one new permanent building, we assume that the age of TLCs at the expected completion date of permanent structures is greater than four years (i.e., based on the assumption that new buildings in each school are reconstructed in sequence). For example, for school ID 2, the performance metric for reliance on temporary structures is 0.6 because 50% of the current school buildings are TLCs.

The fourth criterion is the age group of students in the school requiring intervention. The decision-makers may desire to assign priority levels to different age groups. In this study, we assumed that elementary schools have the highest priority, junior high schools have medium priority, and senior high schools have the lowest priority (Supplementary Table  2 ).

As in Table  1 , we treat three of the criteria as benefit criteria (i.e., an increase in the performance metric would result in a school gaining a higher priority on the intervention list). For example, a school with only (100%) temporary structures on the premises with an average expected age at the end of the reconstruction process greater than four years has a metric of unity (See Supplementary Table  1 ). This means that such a school would be prioritized over a school in which less than 20% of the school buildings are temporary structures. The intervention affordability is treated as a cost criterion (i.e., an increase in the corresponding performance metric would result in a school having a lower priority on the intervention list).

Recovery time modeling

Recovery models are used to simulate the recovery trajectory of a given school building for each realization of ground-motion IMs. The influence of sociocultural, technical, economic, environmental, and political (STEEP) conditions/factors is incorporated in the recovery models using recovery time mitigation ( α ) and amplification factors ( β ) through stochastic network analysis 40 . The average recovery time is assumed to be the sum of the average time required to inspect damaged buildings ( T insp ), for the bidding and construction mobilization ( T mob ), and to restore functionality through selected intervention process ( T int )—the three considered phases. The optimistic time (i.e., the minimum time required to complete each recovery phase) for each of the three phases for a building z is:

where i is the recovery phase, i.e., inspection, mobilization, or intervention; T is the average time to complete a process in a pre-disaster scenario (i.e., without any direct or indirect influence of time-impeding factors), l are the considered time mitigation factors ( α ) ( l  = 1, 2, ..., p ) influencing phase i; and t is the time since the earthquake occurrence. Recovery mitigation and amplification factors may be time-dependent 40 ; hence a i,z is time-dependent. STEEP refers to sociocultural, technical, economic, environmental, and political factors that can either impede or speed up recovery, e.g., construction delays, funds availability, land dispute issues, pandemics, conflicts, and community participation level in the recovery process. Equation ( 3 ) assumes that the time mitigation factors have sequential impacts. In a case where concurrent impact is assumed, the minimum value of the mitigation factors (rather than the product of the factors) is considered.

Table  2 presents the considered recovery processes and corresponding time for community-managed and agency-managed (re)construction projects. The adopted times are based on outputs from semi-structured interviews with NGOs, engineering firms, and contractors actively involved in reconstruction projects in the Palu region 48 .

Supplementary Table  3 presents a range of recovery time mitigation and amplification factors based on a survey 40 of observations, interviews, and focus group discussions from published studies that have compared pre- and post-disaster reconstruction projects in lower-middle income countries. For example, reports 64 show that the absence of local government resulted in several months of delays before post-disaster emergency support could reach specific regions affected by the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal. Furthermore, resolving fundamental issues (e.g., tender process, building permits, and land acquisition) took at least four times the required time. Data 55 show that the recovery rate of buildings in Sri Lanka following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was eight times larger in conflict zones compared to zones outside the conflict region. Reports 65 , 66 have highlighted that poor management skills can lead to construction delays, rejection by beneficiaries, rework, and demolition of newly constructed buildings. Such delays can impede the recovery time by a factor of up to three. Furthermore, the current authors 48 interviewed engineers, contractors and NGO officials involved in the post-2018 Palu earthquake recovery. The interviews provided information on the increase in the time to complete various tasks relative to pre-disaster scenario. All this information contributed to Supplementary Table  3 in the supplementary notes. A key limitation of the proposed recovery time mitigation and amplification factors (Supplementary Table  3 ) is that they are based on limited data. Future studies can refine these factors when more data become available. Also, we recognize that recovery-impeding factors (and related data) vary for different events, countries, and local contexts. This is a big challenge for data transferability. To address this, the factors presented in the table are provided as ranges based on values from different countries of similar human development indices, rather than single average or median values. It is intended that users can select a value within the range that best replicates their own local context and adopt it in the PERT model. The PERT model further allows users to simulate desired levels of pessimism in recovery time analyses. It is expected that risk modeling tools adopting this approach (including selecting relevant factors for their own scenario) will provide useful insights into possible future scenarios and their outcomes.

Equation ( 3 ) accounts for the fact that the time spent in each recovery phase is dependent on the functionality level of the building. T int for constructing a new TLC would be different from the permanent construction of a new building to replace an FL3 building or repair an FL2 building. As earlier mentioned, although not shown in Eq. ( 3 ), the functionality level of each building is conditioned on the IM realization.

Similarly, the pessimistic time b (i.e., the maximum time to complete each phase) is estimated as:

where n  are the considered amplification factors ( β ) ( n  = 1, 2, ..., q ) influencing phase i . Similarly, b i,z is time-dependent. Equation ( 4 ) assumes that the time amplification factors have sequential impacts. In a case where concurrent impact is assumed, the maximum value of the amplification factors (rather than the product of the factors) is used.

The most likely duration ( m ) captures the highest likelihood of completing a recovery phase in a given timeframe. If there is a higher likelihood that the mitigation factors would be more prevalent than the amplification factors, m is defined to be closer to a . Otherwise, m is defined closer to b . When uncertain, m can be defined as 0.5( a + b ).

The defined time parameters (i.e., a , m , and b ) are then used to generate a PERT distribution for each recovery phase. The defined probabilistic duration parameters for each task are then used to carry out plain Monte Carlo sampling. Hence, for each realization j  of IM, the probable recovery time for a school building  z to achieve its full functionality \({Q}_{z,{full}}\) (either through a TLC or permanent building construction) is estimated as:

The post-earthquake recovery trajectory for an entire school with n bld buildings is defined as:

The recovery time for a school is defined as:

The recovery trajectory for the entire community with n s schools for each IM realization j is defined as:

The recovery time for the entire community is defined as:

Data availability

The school database used in this study is described in Opabola et al. 42 and is publicly available 37 . For confidentiality purposes and compliance with the guiding ethics policy, any information that can be used to identify the schools has been redacted in the uploaded database. However, we are willing to share more information (under strict protocols) with other researchers. The stakeholder engagement, including guiding questions, adopted in the study are reported in Opabola et al. 48 .

Code availability

All code used to conduct this analysis is freely available at https://github.com/TayoOpabola/Post-disaster-modelling-of-school-infrastructure ( https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10070853 ).

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Acknowledgements

The study was carried out through the MultiVERSE project, funded by the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) with project reference EP/X023710/1.

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Opabola, E.A., Galasso, C. Informing disaster-risk management policies for education infrastructure using scenario-based recovery analyses. Nat Commun 15 , 325 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42407-y

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The 2010 Chilean Mining Rescue (A and B) On August 5, 2010, 700,000 tons of rock caved in Chile's San José mine. The collapse buried 33 miners at a depth almost twice the height of the Empire State Building-over 600 meters (2000 feet) below ground. Never had a recovery been attempted at such depths, let alone in the face of challenges like those posed by the San José mine: unstable terrain, rock so hard it defied ordinary drill bits, severely limited time, and the potentially immobilizing fear that plagued the buried miners. The case describes the ensuing efforts that drew the resources of countless people and multiple organizations in Chile and around the world.

The National Guard’s Response to the 2010 Pakistan Floods Throughout the summer of 2010, Pakistan experienced severe flooding that overtook a large portion of the country, displacing millions of people, causing extensive physical damage, and resulting in significant economic losses. This case focuses on the role of the National Guard (and of the U.S. military, more broadly) in the international relief effort that unfolded alongside that of Pakistan’s government and military. In particular it highlights how various Guard and U.S. military assets that had been deployed to Afghanistan as part of the war there were reassigned to support the U.S.’s flood relief efforts in Pakistan, revealing the successes and challenges of transitioning from a war-footing to disaster response. In exploring how Guard leaders partnered with counterparts from other components of the U.S. government, Pakistani officials, and members of the international humanitarian community, the case also examines how they navigated a set of difficult civilian-military dynamics during a particularly tense period in US-Pakistan relations.

Inundation: The Slow-Moving Crisis of Pakistan’s 2010 Floods (A, B, and Epilogue) In summer 2010, unusually intense monsoon rains in Pakistan triggered slow-moving floods that inundated a fifth of the country and displaced millions of people. This case describes how Pakistan’s Government responded to this disaster and highlights the performance of the country’s nascent emergency management agency, the National Disaster Management Authority, as well as the integration of international assistance.

"Operation Rollback Water": The National Guard’s Response to the 2009 North Dakota Floods   ( A ,  B , and   Epilogue ) In spring 2009, North Dakota experienced some of the worst flooding in the state’s history. The state's National Guard responded by mobilizing thousands of its troops and working in concert with personnel and equipment from six other states. This case profiles the National Guard’s preparations for and response to the floods and focuses on coordination within the National Guard, between the National Guard and civilian government agencies, and between the National Guard and elected officials.

Typhoon Morakot Strikes Taiwan, 2009 (A, B, and C) In less than four days, Typhoon Morakot dumped close to 118 inches of rain on Taiwan, flooding cities, towns, and villages; washing away roads and bridges; drowning farmland and animals; and triggering mudslides that buried entire villages. With the typhoon challenging its emergency response capacity, Taiwan’s government launched a major rescue and relief operation. But what began as a physical disaster soon became a political disaster for the President and Prime Minister, as bitter criticism came from citizens, the opposition party, and the President’s own supporters.

Getting Help to Victims of 2008 Cyclone Nargis: AmeriCares Engages with Myanmar's Military Government (Case and Epilogue) In May 2008, Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar (Burma) left 138,373 dead or missing and 2.4 million survivors’ livelihoods in doubt, making it the country’s worst natural disaster and one of the deadliest cyclones ever. Friendly Asian countries as well as western governments which previously had used economic sanctions to isolate Myanmar’s military government now sought to provide aid to Myanmar’s people. But they met distrust and faced adversarial relationships from a suspicious government, reluctant to open its borders to outsiders.

China's Blizzards of 2008 From January 10-February 6, a series of heavy snow storms intertwined with ice storms and subzero temperatures created China’s worst winter weather in 50 years. The storms closed airports and paralyzed trains and roads, damaged power grids and water supplies, caused massive black-outs, and left several cities in hard-hit areas isolated and threatened. The disruption of the power supply and transport also severely affected the production and flow of consumer goods and industrial materials, triggering a cascade of crisis nationwide. Coal reserves at power plants were nearly exhausted, production was significantly cut back at big factories, the chronic winter power shortage was exacerbated, and food prices spiked sharply in many areas because of shortages.

Thin on the Ground: Deploying Scarce Resources in the October 2007 Southern California Wildfires  When wildfires swept across Southern California in October 2007, firefighting resources were stretched dangerously thin. Readers are prompted to put themselves in the shoes of public safety authorities and consider how organizations can best address resource scarcities in advance of and during emergency situations.

"Broadmoor Lives:" A New Orleans Neighborhood’s Battle to Recover from Hurricane Katrina (A, B, and Sequel) Stunned by a city planning committee’s proposal to give New Orleans neighborhoods hard-hit by Hurricane Katrina just four months to prove they were worth rebuilding, the Broadmoor community organized and implemented an all-volunteer redevelopment planning effort to bring their neighborhood back to life.

Gridlock in Texas (A and B) As Hurricane Rita bore down on the Houston metro area in mid-September 2005, just a few weeks after Hurricane Katrina had devastated the Gulf Coast, millions of people flocked to the roadways. Part A details the massive gridlock that ensued, illustrating the challenges of implementing safe evacuations and of communicating effectively amidst great fear. Part B explores post-storm efforts to improve evacuation policies and procedures -- and how the resulting plans measured up in 2008, when the area was once again under threat, this time from Hurricane Ike.

Wal-Mart’s Response to Hurricane Katrina: Striving for a Public-Private Partnership (Case and Sequel) This case explores Wal-Mart's efforts to provide relief in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, raising important questions about government’s ability to take full advantage of private sector capabilities during large-scale emergencies. (Included in Howitt & Leonard, Managing Crises)

Moving People out of Danger: Special Needs Evacuations from Gulf Coast Hurricanes (A and B ) In the face of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, officials in Louisiana and Texas grappled with the challenging task of evacuating people with medical and other special needs to safety. The shortcomings of those efforts sparked major initiatives to improve evacuation procedures for individuals requiring transportation assistance – plans that got a demanding test when Hurricanes Gustav and Ike threatened the Gulf Coast in the fall of 2008. (Included in Howitt, Leonard, and Giles, Public Health Preparedness)

Hurricane Katrina:  (A) Preparing for the Big One , and  (B) Responding to an "Ultra-Catastrophe" in New Orleans Exploring the failed response to Hurricane Katrina and its implications for the greater New Orleans area, the case begins with a review of pre-event planning and preparedness efforts. Part B details the largely ineffective governmental response to the rapidly escalating crisis.  (Included in Howitt & Leonard, Managing Crises; Also available in abridged form.)

Rebuilding Aceh: Indonesia's BRR Spearheads Post-Tsunami Recovery (Case and Epilogue) The December 26, 2004, Indian Ocean tsunami caused tremendous damage and suffering on several continents, with Indonesia's Aceh Province, located on the far northern tip of Sumatra Island, experiencing the very worst. In the tsunami's wake, the Indonesian government faced a daunting task of implementing a large-scale recovery effort, and to coordinate the many reconstruction projects that soon began to emerge across Aceh, Indonesia's president established a national-level, ad hoc agency, which came to be known by its acronym BRR. This case examines the challenges encountered by BRR's leadership as it sought to implement an effective recovery process.

When Imperatives Collide: The 2003 San Diego Firestorm   (Case and Epilogue) In October 2003, multiple wildfires burned across southern California. Focusing on the response to the fires, this case explores what can happen when an operational norm — to fight fires effectively but safely — collides with the political imperative to override established procedures to protect the public.  (Included in Howitt & Leonard, Managing Crises)

"Almost a Worst Case Scenario:" The Baltimore Tunnel Fires of 2001 (A, B, and C) When a train carrying hazardous materials derailed under downtown Baltimore, a stubborn underground fire severely challenged emergency responders. Readers are prompted to give particular attention to the significant challenges of managing a multi-organizational response.  (Included in Howitt & Leonard, Managing Crises)

Safe But Annoyed: The Hurricane Floyd Evacuation in Florida When far more citizens than necessary evacuated in advance of Hurricane Floyd, Florida’s roadways were quickly overloaded and emergency management operations overwhelmed. In detailing these (and other) problems, the case highlights the challenges of managing evacuations in advance of potentially catastrophic events. (Included in Howitt & Leonard, Managing Crises)

The US Forest Service and Transitional Fires This case outlines the operational challenges of decision making in a high stress, high stakes situation – in this instance during rapidly evolving wildland fires, also known as "transitional fires." (Included in Howitt & Leonard, Managing Crises)

The Tzu Chi Foundation's China Relief Mission Tzu Chi is one of the largest charities in Taiwan, and one of the swiftest and most effective relief organizations internationally. Rooted in the value of compassion, the organization has many unusual operating features -- including having no long term plan. This case explores the basic operating approach of the organization and invites students to explain the overall effectiveness and success of the organization and its surprising success (as a faith-based, Taiwanese, direct-relief organization -- all of which are more or less anathema to the Chinese government) in securing an operating license in China.

Security Threats

Ce Soir-Là, Ils n'Arrivent Plus Un par Un, Mais par Vagues: Coping with the Surge of Trauma Patients at L'Hôpital Universitaire La Pitié Salpêtrière-Friday, November 13, 2015 On November 13, 2015, Dr. Marie Borel, Dr. Emmanuelle Dolla, Dr. Frédéric Le Saché, and Prof. Mathieu Raux were the doctors in charge of the trauma center at L'Hôpital de la Pitié Salpêtrière in Paris, where dozens of wounded and dying patients, most with severe gunshot wounds from military grade firearms, arrived in waves after a series of terrorist attacks across the city. The doctors had trained for a mass-casualty event but had never envisioned the magnitude of what they now saw. This case describes how they rapidly expanded the critical care capacity available so as to be able to handle the unexpectedly large number of patients arriving at their doors.

Into Local Streets: Maryland National Guard and the Baltimore Riots (Case and Epilogue) On April 19, 2015, Freddie Gray, a young African American male, died while in the custody of the Baltimore Police. In response to his death, protestors mobilized daily in Baltimore to vocalize their frustrations, including what they saw as law enforcement’s long-standing mistreatment of the African American community. Then, on April 27, following Gray’s funeral, riots and acts of vandalism broke out across the city. Overwhelmed by the unrest, the Baltimore police requested assistance from other police forces. Later that evening, Maryland Governor Larry Hogan declared a state of emergency and activated the Maryland National Guard. At the local level, Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake issued a nightly curfew beginning Tuesday evening.

“Into Local Streets” focuses on the role of the National Guard in the response to the protests and violence following Gray’s death, vividly depicting the actions and decision-making processes of the Guard’s senior-most leaders. In particular, it highlights the experience of the state’s Adjutant General, Linda Singh, who soon found herself navigating a complicated web of officials and agencies from both state and local government – and their different perspectives on how to bring an end to the crisis.

Defending the Homeland: The Massachusetts National Guard Responds to the 2013 Boston Marathon Bombings On April 15, 2013, Dzhokhar and Tamerlan Tsarnaev placed and detonated two homemade bombs near the finish line of the Boston Marathon, killing three bystanders and injuring more than two hundred others. This case profiles the role the Massachusetts National Guard played in the complex, multi-agency response that unfolded in the minutes, hours, and days following the bombings, exploring how its soldiers and airmen helped support efforts on multiple fronts – from performing life-saving actions in the immediate aftermath of the attack to providing security on the region’s mass transit system and participating in the search for Dzhokhar Tsarnaev several days later. It also depicts how the Guard’s senior officers helped manage the overall response in partnership with their local, state, and federal counterparts. The case reveals both the emergent and centralized elements of the Guard’s efforts, explores the debate over whether or not Guard members should have been armed in the aftermath of the bombings, and highlights an array of unique assets and capabilities that the Guard was able to provide in support of the response.

Recovery in Aurora: The Public Schools' Response to the July 2012 Movie Theater Shooting (A and B) In July 2012, a gunman entered a movie theater in Aurora, Colorado and opened fire, killing 12 people, injuring 58 others, and traumatizing a community. This two-part case briefly describes the shooting and emergency response but focuses primarily on the recovery process in the year that followed. In particular, it highlights the work of the Aurora Public Schools, which under the leadership of Superintendent John L. Barry, drew on years of emergency management training to play a substantial role in the response and then unveiled an expansive recovery plan. This included hiring a full-time disaster recovery coordinator, partnering with an array of community organizations, and holding mental health workshops and other events to support APS community members. The case also details the range of reactions that staff and community members had to APS' efforts, broader community-wide recovery efforts, and stakeholders' perspectives on the effectiveness of the recovery.

"Miracle on the Hudson" (A, B, and C) Case A describes how in January 2009, shortly after takeoff from LaGuardia Airport, US Airways Flight 1549 lost all power when Canada geese sucked into its engines destroyed them. In less than four harrowing minutes, Flight 1549’s captain and first officer had to decide whether they could make an emergency landing at a nearby airport or find another alternative to get the plane down safely. Cases B and C describe how emergency responders from many agencies and private organizations on both sides of the Hudson River – converging on the scene without a prior action plan for this type of emergency – effectively rescued passengers and crew from the downed plane.

Security Planning for the 2004 Democratic National Convention in  Boston (A, B, and Epilogue) When the city of Boston applied to host the 2004 Democratic Party presidential nominating convention, it hoped to gain considerable prestige and significant economic benefits. But convention organizers and local officials were forced to grapple with a set of unanticipated planning challenges that arose in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.  (Included in Howitt & Leonard, Managing Crises)

Command Performance: County Firefighters Take Charge of the 9/11 Pentagon Emergency This case describes how the Arlington County Fire Department – utilizing the Incident Management System – took charge of the large influx of emergency workers who arrived to put out a massive fire and rescue people in the Pentagon following the September 11, 2001, suicide jetliner attack.  (Included in Howitt & Leonard, Managing Crises)

Rudy Giuliani: The Man and His Moment Although not long before the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani had been under fire for aspects of his mayoralty, the post 9/11 Giuliani won national and international acclaim as a leader. This case recounts the details of Giuliani’s response such that students of effective public leadership can analyze both Giuliani’s decisions and style as examples.

Threat of Terrorism: Weighing Public Safety in Seattle (Case and Epilogue) When a terrorist was arrested in late December 1999 at the Canadian-Washington State border in a car laden with explosives, public safety officials worried that the city of Seattle had been a possible target. This case explores the debate that ensued concerning the seriousness of the threat and whether the city should proceed with its planned Millennium celebration.  (Included in Howitt & Leonard, Managing Crises)

Protecting the WTO Ministerial Conference of 1999 (Case and Epilogue) Two very different sets of actors made extensive preparations in advance of the World Trade Organization's Ministerial Conference of 1999 — protesters opposing international trade practices and public safety officials responsible for event security. This case examines the efforts of both, highlighting why security arrangements ultimately fell short.  (Included in Howitt & Leonard, Managing Crises)

The Shootings at Columbine High School: Responding to a New Kind of Terrorism (Case and Epilogue) Within minutes of the shootings at Columbine, numerous emergency response agencies – including law enforcement, fire fighters, emergency medical technicians, and others – dispatched personnel to the school site. Under intense media scrutiny and trying to coordinate their actions, they sought to determine whether the shooters were still active and rescue the injured.

To What End? Re-Thinking Terrorist Attack Exercises in San Jose (Case, Sequel 1, Sequel 2) In the late 1990s, a task force in San Jose, CA mounted several full-scale terrorist attack exercises, but—despite the best of intentions—found all of them frustrating, demoralizing, and divisive. In response, San Jose drew on several existing prototypes to create a new “facilitated exercise” model that emphasized teaching over testing, and was much better received by first responders.

Security Preparations for the 1996 Centennial Olympic Games (A, B, and C) This case describes efforts by state and federal government entities to plan in advance for security protection for the Atlanta Olympics. It also recounts the Centennial Park bombing and emergency response.  (Included in Howitt & Leonard, Managing Crises)

The Flawed Emergency Response to the 1992 Los Angeles Riots (A, B, and C) Following the announcement of the not guilty verdicts for the law enforcement officers accused of beating Rodney King, the City of Los Angeles was quickly overrun by severe rioting. This case reviews how local, county, state, and federal agencies responded and coordinated their activities in an effort to restore order.  (Included in Howitt & Leonard, Managing Crises)

Public Health Emergencies

Mission in Flux: Michigan National Guard in Liberia ( Case and Epilogue ) In summer and fall of 2014, thousands of individuals in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea contracted the Ebola virus. This outbreak of the deadly disease, which until then had been highly uncommon in West Africa, prompted a major (albeit delayed) public health response on the part of the international community, including an unprecedented commitment made by the United States, which sent almost 3,000 active military soldiers to Liberia. “Mission in Flux” focuses on the US military’s role in the Ebola response, emphasizing the Michigan National Guard’s eventual involvement. In particular, it provides readers with a first-hand account of the challenges the Michigan Guard faced as it prepared for and then deployed to Liberia, just as the crisis had begun to abate and federal officials in Washington began considering how to redefine the mission and footprint of Ebola-relief in West Africa. 

Fears and Realities: Managing Ebola in Dallas   ( Case   and  Epilogue ) “Fears and Realities” describes how public health authorities in Dallas, TX - along with their counterparts at the state and local levels, elected officials, and hospital administrators - responded to the first case of Ebola identified on U.S. soil during the 2014 outbreak of the disease. The hugely difficult tasks of treating the patient and mounting a response was made all the more challenging by confusion over the patient's background and travel history, and, eventually, by the intense focus and considerable concern on the part of the media and public at large. Efforts to curtail the spread of the disease were further complicated when two nurses who had cared for the patient also tested positive for Ebola, even though they apparently had followed CDC protocols when interacting with him. With three confirmed cases of the disease in Dallas – each patient with their own network of contacts – authorities scrambled to understand what was happening and to figure out a way to bring the crisis to an end before more people were exposed to the highly virulent disease.  (Included in Howitt, Leonard, and Giles, Public Health Preparedness)

Confronting a Pandemic in a Home Rule State: The Indiana State Department of Health Responds to H1N1 When Indiana State Health Commissioner Dr. Judy Monroe learned of the emergence of H1N1 in late April 2009, she had to quickly figure out how to coordinate an effective response within a highly balkanized public health system in which more than 90 local health departments wielded considerable autonomy. She would rely heavily on relationships she had worked hard to establish with local health officials upon becoming commissioner -- but she and her senior advisors would still have to scramble to find new ways to communicate and coordinate with their local partners.

On the Frontlines of a Pandemic: Texas Responds to 2009 Novel H1N1 Influenza A  As cases of a new strain of influenza strike in the spring of 2009, Texas, just over the border from the initial epicenter of the epidemic in Mexico, faces great uncertainty about the severity and extent of the epidemic. State officials, presiding over a highly decentralized public health and health care system and needing to work with school systems and other non-health actors, strive to improvise their response to reduce the spread of this disease, while providing anti-viral drugs and, ultimately, a new vaccine to its citizens. (Included in Howitt, Leonard, and Giles, Public Health Preparedness)

Tennessee Responds to the 2009 Novel H1N1 Influenza A Pandemic Tennessee, not so severely struck by H1N1 in the spring of 2009 as some other states, expects to encounter worse in the fall. Working through a hybrid state- and local government-run health system, as well as a network of privately run pharmacies, Tennessee officials mobilize to cope with the expected demand for anti-viral medications and to distribute an expected new vaccine. (Included in Howitt, Leonard, and Giles, Public Health Preparedness)

Harvard Encounters H1N1 In the spring of 2009, as the H1N1 epidemic was beginning to emerge, Harvard University’s medical, dental, and public health schools had to be shut down when a rash of cases and the possibility of widespread exposure emerged among the student body. The case tracks the decision-making by University officials as they cope with the uncertainties surrounding the outbreak of a potentially dangerous emergent infectious disease. (Included in Howitt, Leonard, and Giles, Public Health Preparedness)

Beijing’s Response to the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic In spring 2009, H1N1 emerged in North America and began to spread rapidly throughout the world. Municipal government officials in Beijing, China – who feared a repeat of their painful experience with SARS in 2003 – responded by conducting health screenings at the airport, quarantining people with flu-like symptoms, and scaling capacity at Beijing’s hospitals. The case describes Beijing’s expansive effort to combat H1N1 and is designed to teach students about Beijing’s government as well as China’s public health system.

Keeping an Open Mind in an Emergency: CDC Experiments with 'Team B'   ( Case   and  Epilogue ) In the early 2000s, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) sought to adapt its protocols for coping with public health emergencies. This case examines the usefulness of one such method, "Team B," which was designed to provide the principal investigating team with alternative explanations for and approaches to the incident at hand.  (Included in Howitt & Leonard, Managing Crises; and Howitt, Leonard, and Giles, Public Health Preparedness)

X-Treme Planning: Ohio Prepares for Pandemic Flu With concern developing about the possibility of a worldwide pandemic of avian flu, the Ohio Department of Health developed plans for how it would handle such an emergency, while at the same time seeking to exercise its nascent incident management system and continue its efforts to develop as an emergency response agency. (Included in Howitt, Leonard, and Giles, Public Health Preparedness)

Emergency Response System Under Duress: Public Health Doctors Fight to Contain SARS in Toronto (A, B, and Epilogue) When an emergent infectious disease arrived in Toronto in 2003, the Canadian public health system struggled to bring it under control. This case explores the efforts of Canadian public health authorities to identify and understand the mysterious illness, which threatened the health — and lives — of Toronto’s residents and healthcare workers for months on end.  (Included in Howitt & Leonard, Managing Crises; and Howitt, Leonard, and Giles, Public Health Preparedness)

Hong Kong Copes with SARS, 2003: The Amoy Gardens (Case and Epilogue) In the last days of March 2003, the frightening new disease known as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, seemed to threaten to spread out of control in one of the world’s most densely-populated cities: Hong Kong. The SARS outbreak at Amoy Gardens became an exercise in crisis management for public health officials in Hong Kong—with their counterparts around the world either observing or actively advising.

When Prevention Can Kill: Minnesota and the Smallpox Vaccine Program (Case and Epilogue) Following the 2001 terrorist attacks, President Bush launched a program to vaccinate health workers and emergency responders against smallpox. This case describes that effort, placing particular emphasis on the difficulties that emerged in making that program work in Minnesota. (Included in Howitt, Leonard, and Giles, Public Health Preparedness)

Charting a Course in a Storm: US Postal Service and the Anthrax Crisis This case describes how the USPS responded when it was struck by devastating anthrax attacks through the mails. It covers the initial response to protect employees, efforts to keep the mails moving to the greatest extent possible, and early steps toward decontamination of facilities and recovery.  (Included in Howitt & Leonard, Managing Crises; and Howitt, Leonard, and Giles, Public Health Preparedness)

White Powders in Georgia: Responding to Cases of Suspected Anthrax After 9/11 Although no spore of real anthrax showed up in Georgia during the anthrax attack period, the state was inundated with thousands of calls about suspect white powders. The case describes efforts by local and state officials to develop appropriate procedures to triage and prioritize possible cases, conduct tests of possible anthrax, and protect and reassure worried first responders. (Included in Howitt, Leonard, and Giles, Public Health Preparedness)

The West Nile Virus Outbreak in New York City (A, B, and Sequel) Case A tells how in the summer of 1999 New York City public health officials discovered sentinel cases of a hitherto unknown disease and identified it with assistance from the state, CDC, veterinary pathologists at the Bronx Zoo, and university researchers. Case B and the Sequel describe how the city organized a massive mosquito spraying effort, first in a single borough and then citywide. (Included in Howitt, Leonard, and Giles, Public Health Preparedness)

Anthrax Threats in Southern California This case recounts how California officials responded (and over-responded) to an Anthrax hoax in late 1998, as well as how they then developed protocols of response and disseminated them to multiple jurisdictions. (Included in Howitt, Leonard, and Giles, Public Health Preparedness)

Coping with Crisis: Hong Kong Public Health Officials and the "Bird Flu"  In 1997, public health authorities in Hong Kong worked to identify and control a dangerous new flu virus not previously known to infect humans. The case focuses on the authorities' communication with the public, as they sought to quell public fears notwithstanding their own incomplete knowledge of the disease. The case, too, describes the crisis management decision to undertake a massive slaughter of Hong Kong chickens, once they were shown to be the host of the deadly but difficult-to-transmit virus.

The City of Chicago and the 1995 Heat Wave (A and B) During the summer of 1995, more than 700 people died of heat-related illness in Chicago, Illinois. With most deaths occurring before the city recognized that an “epidemic” was going on, this case explores the silent crisis that overtook the city. (Included in Howitt, Leonard, and Giles, Public Health Preparedness)

Extreme Events, Resilience and Disaster Management: Lessons from Case Studies

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Disaster Management is thought to start only after a disaster has struck. But that is only a part of the overall management strategy. We are increasingly waking up to the fact that Disaster Management should start much ahead and avoiding disasters is the best way to manage them. This calls for building a resilient society. For the last few decades environmental irregularities have become more frequent across the globe, which scientists claim to be the signs of an irreversible climate change. Scientists are clamouring for the need to build mitigating and adaptive measures in local, national and global policies to face this challenge. In this paper, we start with a broad outline of disasters, resilience, damage costs and avoidance costs. We also explain why we find resilience planning to be generally underfunded in developing countries. We then discuss the consequences of such under-preparedness using three case studies of cyclone management in India to understand the complexities of resilience planning and extreme event management policies. We also examine how the pandemic had affected resilience activities during one of the extreme events chosen for study. In the final section we outline the lessons learned from this experience and the policy response that may be put in place to deal with such situation—which looks to become increasingly regular in near future. The paper helps in bringing to limelight the problems faced during multiple extreme events.

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Majumder, R. (2023). Extreme Events, Resilience and Disaster Management: Lessons from Case Studies. In: Mitra, S., Dasgupta, K., Dey, A., Bedamatta, R. (eds) Disaster Management and Risk Reduction: Multidisciplinary Perspectives and Approaches in the Indian Context. NERC 2022. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-6395-9_17

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DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-6395-9_17

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Disaster Risk Reduction in School Curricula: Case Studies from Thirty Countries

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Executive Summary

This document reports the findings of a UNICEF/UNESCO Mapping of Global DRR Integration into Education Curricula consultancy. The researchers were tasked with capturing key national experiences in the integration of disaster risk reduction in the curriculum, identifying good practice, noting issues addressed and ones still lacking and reviewing learning outcomes. The methodology employed has been one of meta-research of available literature and case study documentary research into the experiences of thirty countries.

The most frequently found approach to DRR integration is that of infusion, i.e., disaster-related themes and topics that are woven into speci!c school subjects. DRR is, for the most part, integrated into a narrow band of subjects, typically the physical and natural sciences, although there are examples of its appearance across a wider range of subjects. There are a limited number of examples of DRR appearing as the primary focus or key strand within a special new subject area. Moreover, there is little evidence of cross-curricular linkages being forged nor of an interdisciplinary approach being adopted. If horizontal integration is not prominent, neither is vertical integration of DRR learning at the primary and secondary grade levels.

A broad range of approaches to integrating disaster risk reduction has been identi!ed: the textbook-driven approach; the pilot project approach; the centralized competency-based approach (in which curriculum development is determined by the identi!cation of key competencies); the centrally developed special subject approach; the symbiosis approach (in which an established cross-curricular dimension such as environmental education, education for sustainable development or life skills education serves as a carrier for DRR); the ‘special event’ approach. The advantages and disadvantages of each approach are enumerated.

Learning and teaching approaches used in addressing DRR curriculum tend to be generally limited in application. Links are not, in many cases, being made between the competency, community engagement and proactive citizenship ambitions of DRR and the need for interactive, participatory and ‘in the !eld’ learning through which competencies, involvement literacy and con!dence are built. Successful examples of interactive, inquiry, experiential and action learning are to be found across the case studies but not in great numbers. There is little evidence for affective learning approaches (involving the sharing of feelings and emotions) even though learning about hazard and disaster can elicit a strong emotional response in the learner. The need for affective learning becomes ever stronger in that the increasing incidence of disaster means that pre-disaster learning is increasingly taking place in post-disaster or slow-onset disaster learning environments.

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Schools and disasters: Examining the evidence for K-12 settings across the emergency management phases

Natasha malmin, mph, ann-margaret esnard, phd, christopher wyczalkowski, phd, betty lai, phd.

Disasters may have profound impacts on children and schools. We reviewed the evidence on schools and disasters, and analyzed these impacts across the four main emergency management (EM) phases. We reviewed 190 abstracts from 60 journals published between 2000 and 2019, using the definitions of mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery from the National Research Council. Over 48 percent of articles fell within two or more phases, particularly when they addressed popular topics such as disaster risk reduction. School safety and mitigation efforts, curriculum development and awareness training around disaster risk reduction, and the importance of cross-sector collaborations and partnerships emerged as common themes, identifying opportunities for research and practice in the process. A natural next step could be the creation of a centralized online databank for schools and administrators who need access to resources such as survey and evaluation instruments, risk / threat assessment methodologies, cultural competency training modules, and other tool kits. Use of the EM phases increases the ability to exchange ideas and actionable approaches to EM research and policy practice for school-aged children.

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Case study of the Emergency and Disaster Preparedness, Response and Rehabilitation Capacities of Government Schools in Philippine, and development of Asian statement

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Junna Lynne R Pantino

This policy proposal aims to formally institutionalize disaster risk reduction and management (DRRM) in the Philippines by integrating a DRRM unit to the Science subjects in the elementary and secondary level of education and a creation of a required DRRM subject for the tertiary level. Literature states that education is a sustainable factor in DRRM and it involves the children and the youth who were considered to be one of the most vulnerable sectors in times of disasters so this proposal is very appropriate for the Philippines which has a young population and is always hit by disasters. The Philippines had made laws on disaster management however, there are still issues of proper implementation and sustainability. This policy being proposed addresses those gaps, Education is seen as sustainable by the literature and the integration of DRRM into the educational curricula would be a firmer implementation of Sec. 14 of RA 10121. Lastly, this proposal concludes that integration of DRRM into the curricula of schools in the country would not only provide a sustainable DRRM policy but is also a big step towards the creation of a disaster preparedness culture in the country.

Agung Widiyantoro

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TRUPHENA MUKUNA

The year 2015 is referred to as a milestone year because it marks the end of Millennium Development Goals and HFA to build the resilience of nations and communities to disasters. Disaster Risk Reduction should be integrated into sustainable development policies and planning as a strategy of achieving MDGs. However, it is the missing link in the achievement of the MDGs. Measurement associated with the education targets and indicators has been associated with the omission of salient aspects of quality, context and equity. The MDGs do not give any indication on what should be learned and by whom. Neither do they factor in inequality; for example children who drop out of school may be classified as enrolled. The MDG indicators currently do not pick up either inequities of who is and is not enrolled or completing or the perverse incentives associated with large numbers of children being enrolled in school but learning little especially the poorest in remote locations. They do not factor ...

ACADEME - University of Bohol Graduate School and Professional Studies Journal

Elijah L . Sales

Risk reduction is recognized as vital for building a more equitable future and for reducing the severity of losses during disasters. Effective risk reduction occurs when there is cooperation between sectors of society, and there is an existing disaster preparedness program in place. The primary thrust of this study was to determine the level of compliance with the school risk reduction and disaster preparedness program among the public secondary schools in the District of Buenavista, Bohol, Philippines. It sought to determine compliance in the aspects of safe learning facilities, school disaster management and disaster risk reduction in education. The study employed quantitative method through a survey questionnaire anchored on the instruments developed by the Department of Education (DepEd). The findings revealed that schools had a good compliance level on disaster preparedness. However, some problems were encountered such as inadequate training materials and lack of training among the school disaster risk reduction management teams. Despite these challenges, both teachers and students agreed that the public secondary schools were generally compliant. A need was seen to continue the conduct of disaster preparedness training and seminars as well as budget allocation to finance the publication and dissemination of training materials of the program for distribution to schools.

Bea Balbacal

This policy presents a standard of implementation for Sec. 14 of the Disaster Risk Reduction Management Act, institutionalizing DRRM education in all levels so as to establish a prevalent attitude of initiative and preparedness in the long run. Given the inherent vulnerability of the Philippines to both natural and man-made calamities along with the past history of numerous casualties currently flawed institutions, there is an urgent need for more long-run, sustainable, and proactive disaster risk reduction policies. *This was written in partial fulfillment for the requirements of Political Science 152, University of the Philippines Diliman

IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science

Dholina Inang Pambudi

Emergencies of natural disasters often occur suddenly. In an effort to reduce disaster risk, good preparedness is needed, especially in the locations that become the center of activities, one of which is elementary school. The school is responsible for ensuring the safety of its citizens in disaster emergencies, especially elementary schools whose students are included in the vulnerable age group. On the other hand, schools as educational institutions should also be able to play a role in increasing students’ knowledge and skills concerning disasters. Students are the fastest agents of knowledge transfer from school to their families and communities. Therefore, early child empowerment to understand disaster risk reduction is very important and useful. In disaster-prone areas of Merapi eruption, there are many elementary schools. With the potential for eruption hazards in the future, it is necessary to increase the role of elementary schools in building preparedness in facing disaste...

HKICSS Conference Preceedings

Omar G . Lamina

The Philippines is known as one of the most hazard-prone countries in the world. In a study conducted by World Bank in 2016, the country was identified as a natural disaster hot-spot with approximately 52.46 percent of its total area is exposed to natural disasters and 80.03 percent of its population is vulnerable to natural disasters (World Risk Report 2016). Partnerships between schools, families, and communities can create safer school environments, strengthen parenting skills, encourage community service, improve academic skills, and achieve other desired goals that benefit students at all ages and grade levels. This research study entitled "School-Community Cooperation in Disaster Education and Preparedness in Barangay Dolores, Taytay, Rizal, Philippines" determined and analyzed the status of cooperation between the schools and the community members regarding disaster education and preparedness. Participants answered the questions administered through interviews and survey questionnaires. After the participants answered the questions, the researcher described the responses given by using several statistical tools. The systematic process of the study was conducted at Barangay Dolores which is one of the five barangays that makes up the municipality of Taytay. The subject of the study were selected 200 community members who are also parents of students studying in the identified learning institutions together with 100 teachers from three public elementary particularly Dolores Elementary School, Taytay Elementary School and Hapay na Mangga Elementary School and one public junior high school in Barangay Dolores which is Casimiro A. Ynares Sr. Memorial National High School. Subjects were chosen on a voluntary basis. 1. Background The concept and practice of reducing and managing disaster risks through systematic efforts to analyse and manage the causal factors of disasters, including reduced exposure to hazards, lessen the vulnerability of people and property, wise management of land and the environment, and improve preparedness to lessen its effect should be a global priority specially for countries which are considered highly prone like the Philippines. The Philippines continues to face challenges brought about by typhoons, monsoon rains, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and landslides. Throughout the recorded history of the Philippines, disasters in various parts of the country have been reported every year. Unmistakably, floods, storms, volcanic eruption and earthquakes have been the most frequently occurring natural disasters. This confirms the high level of exposure of the country to hazards and natural disaster due to its location and geography. The location and geographic features explains the prevalence of earthquake, tsunami and landslide are frequent.

J.E. Langomez

Eunice Malayo

The vulnerability of the Philippines to disasters is one of the major problems that plague the country. The occurrence of these disasters causes thousands of lives and millions of economic loss and destruction to properties. Although it is impossible for modern technologies to prevent the occurrence of disasters, mitigating the risks they could inflict is possible. This policy proposal aims to encourage the participation of the private sector in disaster risk management through providing tax incentives to private individuals and firms which will help in disaster risk reduction and management particularly in the implementation and actualization of the projects and programs stated in the National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Plan (NDRRMP) 2011-2028. Consistent with the recognition of the constitution to the important role of the private sector for the development of the country, this policy, entitled “More Resilient Philippines Program” believes in the potential of the private sector to assist the government in providing quality and more efficient disaster risk management projects.

Joeni Hartanto

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