ged test essay sample

Topic reprinted with permission of the GED Testing Service.

GED Essay Tips & Strategies

Most of the GED Reasoning Through Language Arts (RLA) exam is multiple-choice, but there is also one “Extended Response” question. This question requires you to write a short essay in response to two passages of text. The passages will present two different viewpoints on a topic. You must read both of the passages and then decide which argument is best supported . Your essay should include evidence from both passages to prove that one of the authors crafts a better argument.

Please note that you are not being asked to write about which opinion is correct or which opinion you believe to be true. You are being asked to write about which passage best supports its claims. You will have 45 minutes total to read the prompt, read the passages provided, and to draft your essay.

Essay Quick Tips

• Begin your paragraphs with topic sentences that separate your major ideas and keep your argument organized.
• Utilize logical transition words/phrases to seamlessly move from one paragraph to the next.
• Use correct spelling and proper grammar.
• Vary your sentence structure and incorporate appropriate, advanced vocabulary words.
• Stay on topic! Create an outline prior to beginning your essay to organize your thoughts.

Essay Scoring

Your GED essay will be evaluated across three areas:

• Analysis of Arguments and Use of Evidence.
• Development of Ideas and Organizational Structure.
• Clarity and Command of Standard English Conventions.

The task may seem intimidating, but you more than likely already have these skills! Your essay will receive three scores—one for each of the listed areas.

Since you only have 45 minutes, you must make sure to effectively utilize your time. The best way to accomplish this is by practicing essays under the same 45-minute time limit.

Writing Guidelines

Rely upon these timing guidelines as you write your GED essay:

• PLAN — Spend 10 minutes reading the source material and organizing your essay response.
• PRODUCE — Spend 30 minutes writing your (ideally) 5-paragraph essay.
• PROOFREAD — Save 5 minutes for re-reading what you wrote and making necessary changes and improvements.

Remember, since you are typing your essay on the computer screen, proofreading and editing can be done much more quickly than if you were reading over a handwritten essay! Five minutes may not seem like much, but you should be able to read the entire essay over at least once and correct any obvious spelling or grammatical mistakes.

Pro-tip: Don’t start writing until you have every paragraph planned out! Outlining your argument is the best method for producing a coherent and cogent response.

Since the GED RLA extended response is graded by the ACS (Automated Scoring Engine), it is relatively easy to score well if you rely on the organization of a good essay template. Here are a few quick tips regarding clarity to help you score as highly as possible on the GED RLA Extended Response:

Essay Template

Paragraph 1 — Introduction

Start with a 1-sentence general statement regarding the topic. Show that you understand the argument(s) by identifying the topic and its significance, and then present a bold and concise thesis statement; Consider the following example thesis:

Though the first passage highlights important considerations regarding (the topic of) ________, ultimately the second passage is better supported and more convincing.

Paragraphs 2, 3, and 4 — Body Paragraphs

When you plan your essay, you should formulate your thesis (choosing which side you found to be best-supported), and carefully lay out three major reasons why it is best-supported. Each of your body paragraphs should explore one of these ideas.

Use specific examples to support your point of view. Pull selections from the argument you are stating is best supported, and explain why they are good supporting examples, or why they make valid points of consideration.

Each body paragraph should only focus on one major idea, and the 1–2 selections from the passage that support that idea. Try to keep the paragraphs between 4–6 sentences so that they are succinct, direct, and clear. Avoid excessive wordiness; more is not always better!

Paragraph 5 — Conclusion

In 2–3 sentences, wrap up your thoughts, reiterate the accuracy of your thesis (why the argument you chose is better-supported), and leave the reader with an idea of WHY they should give more consideration to the topic. You can also use the conclusion to offer a degree of concession to the opposing argument, conceding that there are one or two good qualities of the other passage, before echoing that the passage you selected is ultimately better-supported and more convincing.

Finally, don’t worry about choosing the “wrong” side. It doesn’t matter which side you choose, just be sure that you can quote specific examples from the source texts to support your ideas!

Now, review our sample prompt and practice writing an essay!

GED Essay Prompt >>

How to Pass the GED

Extended Response: Example 1

Basics The second section of Reasoning Through Language Arts evaluates your ability to integrate reading and writing by way of a 45-minute Extended Response. GED guidelines specify that you will be asked to write an essay about the best-supported position—the most persuasive side of an argument—presented in two passages with opposing points of view.  Accordingly, you will need to produce evidence supporting the most convincing position from either Passage I or Passage II.  Attention to specific details within the passages will help you find the necessary pieces of evidence.

GED.com has excellent resources to help prepare for the Extended Response as follows: • poster • videos • guidelines – english • guidelines – spanish • quick tips – english • quick tips – spanish • practice passages – english • practice passages – spanish

Here, at HowtoPasstheGED.com, a five-paragraph essay will be used as a framework for writing an Extended Response.

Five-Paragraph Essay – Outline Paragraph 1:  Introduction of your position with three supporting points. Paragraph 2:  Discussion of first point. Paragraph 3:  Discussion of second point. Paragraph 4:  Discussion of third point. Paragraph 5:  Summary and Conclusion of your position and its three supporting points.

Five-Paragraph Essay – Choose (Before You Write) • Read Passage I and Passage II. • Choose the best-supported position. • Select three points supporting this position.

Five-Paragraph Essay – Beginner Level (You’re Up and Running!) • Write the first sentence of each of the five paragraphs. • In paragraph 1, introduce your position and its three supporting points. • In paragraph 2, put down the first point. • In paragraph 3, put down the second point. • In paragraph 4, put down the third point. • In paragraph 5, restate your position and its three supporting points.

Five-Paragraph Essay – Intermediate Level (You’re Adding On!) • In paragraph 1, introduce your position and its three supporting points. • In paragraph 2, write at least three sentences about the first point, including mentioning something from the other side. • In paragraph 3, write at least three sentences about the second point, including mentioning something from the other side. • In paragraph 4, write at least three sentences about the third point, including mentioning something from the other side. • In paragraph 5, restate your position and its three supporting points, including coming to a conclusion about them.

Five-Paragraph Essay – Advanced Level (Polish Your Essay If You Have Time) • In paragraph 1, introduce your position and its three supporting points. • In paragraph 2, write at least three sentences about the first point, including mentioning something from the other side. • In paragraph 3, write at least three sentences about the second point, including mentioning something from the other side. • In paragraph 4, write at least three sentences about the third point, including mentioning something from the other side. • In paragraph 5, restate your position and its three supporting points, including coming to a conclusion about them.

The example below goes over the process of writing a five-paragraph essay as an Extended Response to Passage I versus Passage II.

Passage I Working from Home is Beneficial

Some experts say there’s no going back now that both employers and workers have learned that telework can be effective.

“The pandemic has radically changed how we view telework or remote work,” said Timothy Golden, a professor of management at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. “Many individuals and companies have realized that we can work remotely effectively. And so, I think remote work is here to stay.”

“We are going to err on the side of letting more people work remotely for longer periods of time,” said Ravi Gajendran, chair of the Department of Global Leadership and Management in the College of Business at Florida International University.

“When that’s not working as well,” added Gajendran, “the pendulum will sort of swing slightly back towards the office. It’s not going to come back to what it was previously, but what we’re going to find is, as new employees join, as new teams form, and as people who have not worked together before are now working remotely, things are not going to be as smooth.”

But, said Golden, “We know that many employees have been highly productive during the pandemic and have been able to carry on their work in a fashion that was consistent with their productivity before the pandemic.”

According to Cathleen Swody, an organizational psychologist at Thrive Leadership, remote work has led to more authentic moments between co-workers who’ve ended up meeting a colleague’s pets or families online, as the pandemic provided a virtual window, and therefore greater insight, into a co-worker’s personal side than working at the office ever did.

“You’ve seen many large companies, and in different industries, make announcements about the future of their workforce in how it is likely to be hybrid. And some workers will be working remotely on a permanent basis, and others will be in a hybrid form,” pointed out Golden. “Companies that do this right and do this in the right way, will have a competitive advantage over those who do not.”

Increased telework could free employees from having to live close to where they work. That could also benefit employers who won’t have to be limited to the local talent pool. More jobs could go to places with lower costs of living and ultimately, overseas.

“It could go to Asia or Africa or South America,” said Gajendran.

With more employees working remotely from home, employers could reduce their costs further by cutting back on office space. – adapted from VOA (04/09/2021, 04/12/2021, 04/29/21)

Passage II Working from Home is Harmful

The benefits of working from home—including skipping a long commute and having a better work-life balance—have been well documented, but employees are literally paying for the privilege, according to a study from the National Bureau of Economic Research.

“People need to dedicate space to work from home,” said Christopher Stanton, an Associate Professor at Harvard Business School who co-authored the study. “For many folks who lived in small apartments or houses before the pandemic, working from home wasn’t a a realistic long-term solution unless they could upgrade to larger apartments or houses.”

The researchers analyzed data from the U.S. Census Bureau to reach their conclusions. They found that between 2013 and 2017, households with at least one teleworker spent on average more of their income on rent or a mortgage to pay for the extra room needed to work from home.

“A household that was spending about $1,000 a month on rent would be spending around $1,070 on rent. So, it’s about a 7% increase, on average, across the income distribution,” Stanton said.

The researchers estimate that about 10% of people who worked in an office before the pandemic could permanently transition to working from home full time. A recent Upwork survey suggests that 36 million Americans will be working remotely by 2025—an 87% increase over pre-pandemic levels, and these workers could potentially take on the additional costs.

The added expense is easier for high-income households to bear but puts an increased burden on workers who earn less money.

“You might have gotten an increase of 20-ish percent in housing expenses for lower-income households with remote workers compared to lower-income households without remote workers,” Stanton said. “That’s a pretty big chunk of expenditure for those households in the bottom half of the income distribution.”

Kristen Carpenter, chief psychologist in the Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Health at Ohio State University, added that at-home, remote work causes more work to be performed outside normal business hours, so it’s hard “to draw a boundary that prevents work from being ever-present,” including nights and weekends.

Cathleen Swody, an organizational psychologist at Thrive Leadership, also pointed out that when people work from home, “they kind of get stuck in this little place,” whereas going back to the office leads to more interpersonal interaction and innovation. – adapted from VOA (04/09/2021, 04/12/2021, 04/29/21)

Prompt Passage I finds working from home to be beneficial; Passage II finds working from home to be harmful. In your response, analyze the positions presented in Passage I and Passage II to determine which passage is best supported. Use relevant and specific evidence to back your choice. You have 45 minutes to plan, type, and edit your response.

Five-Paragraph Essay – Choose (Before You Write) • Read Passage I and Passage II. • Choose the best-supported position. In this example, Passage I is chosen as the best-supported position. • Select three points supporting this position. (1) Working from home is productive. (2) Working from home improves employee interaction. (3) Working from home saves money.

Passage I is the best-supported position because working from home is productive, improves employee interaction, and saves money.

Working from home is productive.

Working from home improves employee interaction.

Working from home saves money.

In summary, Passage I is the best-supported position because working from home is productive, improves employee interaction, and saves money.

Working from home is productive.  Passage I uses the pandemic to make the relevant observation that individuals and companies realized they could work remotely effectively.  Many employees have been highly productive this way and can stay this way.  Passage II admits in its very first sentence that the benefits of working from home have been well documented. 

Working from home improves employee interaction.  Passage I is persuasive when it notes that remote work has led to “more authentic moments” between co-workers.  However, workers still have the option of working at the office, as well as at home, in a hybrid form.  Thus, Passage II is incorrect when it claims remote workers get stuck in one place.

Working from home saves money.  Passage I makes a convincing argument for freedom.  It asserts that remote work frees employees from having to live close to office buildings.  It also frees employers from having to pay for as much office space.  Passage II says employees need to spend some money to outfit a home office, but this is less costly than commuting.

In summary, Passage I is the best-supported position because working from home is productive, improves employee interaction, and saves money.  In conclusion, there is no place like home.

Working from home is productive.  Passage I uses an authority—Timothy Golden, a professor of management at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute—to make the following relevant observation: “The pandemic has radically changed how we view telework or remote work.  Many individuals and companies have realized that we can work remotely effectively.  We know that many employees have been highly productive during the pandemic and have been able to carry on their work in a fashion that was consistent with their productivity before the pandemic.  And so, I think remote work is here to stay.”  Passage II admits that at least some of what Golden said is true by stating in its very first sentence “the benefits of working from home—including skipping a long commute and having a better work-life balance—have been well documented.” 

Working from home improves employee interaction.  Passage I effectively uses another expert—Cathleen Swody, an organizational psychologist at Thrive Leadership—to state that remote work has led to “more authentic moments between co-workers who’ve ended up meeting a colleague’s pets or families online, as the pandemic provided a virtual window, and therefore greater insight, into a co-worker’s personal side than working at the office ever did.”  Although Passage II says people who work from home “kind of get stuck in this little place,” Golden affirms that workers aren’t really stuck, because some will be working in a hybrid form, meaning partly at home and partly in an office.

Working from home saves money.  Passage I makes a convincing argument for freedom.  Remote work saves money by freeing employees from having to live close to office buildings and freeing employers from having to pay for as much office space.  According to Christopher Stanton (Associate Professor at Harvard Business School) in Passage II, employees need to spend some money to outfit their apartments or houses with a home office, but this is a small price to pay compared to avoiding a costly daily commute.

In summary, Passage I is the best-supported position because working from home is productive, improves employee interaction, and saves money.  In particular, Passage I leads to the conclusion that working from home is beneficial in that it leaves nobody out: Both employers and employees stand to gain.

Remember, the RLA Extended Response is based on what YOU determine to be the best-supported position presented in either Passage I or Passage II. In order to demonstrate that YOU have room to maneuver, the example below goes over the process of writing a five-paragraph essay as an Extended Response to Passage I versus Passage II with a different choice.

Prior to the pandemic, about 5 million Americans worked remotely. But COVID-19 forced U.S. employers to allow telework on a massive scale, resulting in an estimated 75 million people working from home over the past year.

Five-Paragraph Essay – Choose (Before You Write) • Read Passage I and Passage II. • Choose the best-supported position. In this example, Passage II is chosen as the best-supported position. • Select three points supporting this position. (1) Working from home is unproductive. (2) Working from home hampers employee interaction. (3) Working from home costs money.

Passage II is the best-supported position because working from home is unproductive, hampers employee interaction, and costs money.

Working from home is unproductive.

Working from home hampers employee interaction.

Working from home costs money.

In summary, Passage II is the best-supported position because working from home is unproductive, hampers employee interaction, and costs money.

Working from home is unproductive.  Backed by facts, Passage II is able to make a strong statement when it says working in small setups at home ultimately ends up in fatigue and less productive employees.  In fact, fifty-four percent of home workers feel overworked and 39% are exhausted.  Passage I has no numbers to back up its claim that people can work remotely effectively.

Working from home hampers employee interaction.  Passage II cleverly notes that when people work from home, they get stuck.  Going back to the office leads to more interpersonal interaction and innovation.  Passage I even admits that working from home doesn’t always work well, meaning that people end up back in the office.

Working from home costs money.  Passage II convincingly has money in mind when it states that households with at least one teleworker have to spend some of their income to pay for the extra room needed to work from home.  Lower-income households need to spend even more of their income to set things up at home.  Passage I offers no solutions for employees paying out of pocket to work from home.

In summary, Passage II is the best-supported position because working from home is unproductive, hampers employee interaction, and costs money.  In conclusion, there are places other than home.

Working from home is unproductive.  Passage II comes out swinging with Christopher Stanton, an Associate Professor at Harvard Business School, who asserts having nonergonomic setups in small places [at home] ultimately ends up “leading to fatigue and wear and tear and less productive employees in the long run.”  In fact, “fifty-four percent of people who’ve worked from home this past year feel overworked, and 39% say they’re downright exhausted.”  Although Timothy Golden (professor of management at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute) claims in Passage I that “many individuals and companies have realized that we can work remotely effectively,” he has no real numbers to back him up.

Working from home hampers employee interaction.  Passage II cites another authority—Cathleen Swody, an organizational psychologist at Thrive Leadership—to point out that people who work from home “kind of get stuck in this little place.”  She goes on to convincingly argue that “going back to the office leads to more interpersonal interaction and innovation.”  In Passage I, Ravi Gajendran, chair of the Department of Global Leadership and Management in the College of Business at Florida International University, even admits that working from home doesn’t always work well, such that “the pendulum will sort of swing” back towards the office.

Working from home costs money.  Passage II hits home with data from the U.S. Census Bureau, which found that “between 2013 and 2017, households with at least one teleworker spent on average more of their income on rent or a mortgage to pay for the extra room needed to work from home.”  Stanton adds that “you might have gotten an increase of 20-ish percent in housing expenses for lower-income households with remote workers compared to lower-income households without remote workers, a pretty big chunk of expenditure for those households in the bottom half of the income distribution.”  Passage I offers no solutions for employees “literally paying for the privilege” of working from home.

In summary, Passage II is the best-supported position because working from home is unproductive, hampers employee interaction, and costs money.  In particular, Passage II leads to the conclusion that working from home can be so harmful that it never stops, becoming an “ever-present” task performed outside normal business hours without a boundary.

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This chapter presents history, economic statistics, and federal government directories of Novosibirsk Oblast. Novosibirsk Oblast is situated in the Western Siberian Plain. It borders Kazakhstan in the south-west, Altai Krai to the south, and the Oblasts of Omsk to the west, Tomsk to the north and Kemerovo to the east. In 2015 Novosibirsk Oblast's gross regional product (GRP) was 980,851m. roubles, or 356,087 roubles per head. Novosibirsk is the region's principal industrial centre. At the end of 2015 there were 1,512 km of railways and 19,390 km of paved roads in the Oblast. The Oblast's agriculture comprises the production of grain, vegetables, potatoes and flax, and animal husbandry. It employed 7.6% of the workforce and contributed 5.7% of GRP in 2015. Industry employed 22.2% of the workforce and contributed 22.4% of GRP in 2015. Extractive industries involve the production of coal, petroleum, natural gas, limestone and clay. The Oblast's manufacturing industry includes non-ferrous metallurgy, mechanical engineering, and electricity generation.

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Key things to know about U.S. election polling in 2024

Confidence in U.S. public opinion polling was shaken by errors in 2016 and 2020. In both years’ general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of Republican candidates, including Donald Trump. These errors laid bare some real limitations of polling.

In the midterms that followed those elections, polling performed better . But many Americans remain skeptical that it can paint an accurate portrait of the public’s political preferences.

Restoring people’s confidence in polling is an important goal, because robust and independent public polling has a critical role to play in a democratic society. It gathers and publishes information about the well-being of the public and about citizens’ views on major issues. And it provides an important counterweight to people in power, or those seeking power, when they make claims about “what the people want.”

The challenges facing polling are undeniable. In addition to the longstanding issues of rising nonresponse and cost, summer 2024 brought extraordinary events that transformed the presidential race . The good news is that people with deep knowledge of polling are working hard to fix the problems exposed in 2016 and 2020, experimenting with more data sources and interview approaches than ever before. Still, polls are more useful to the public if people have realistic expectations about what surveys can do well – and what they cannot.

With that in mind, here are some key points to know about polling heading into this year’s presidential election.

Probability sampling (or “random sampling”). This refers to a polling method in which survey participants are recruited using random sampling from a database or list that includes nearly everyone in the population. The pollster selects the sample. The survey is not open for anyone who wants to sign up.

Online opt-in polling (or “nonprobability sampling”). These polls are recruited using a variety of methods that are sometimes referred to as “convenience sampling.” Respondents come from a variety of online sources such as ads on social media or search engines, websites offering rewards in exchange for survey participation, or self-enrollment. Unlike surveys with probability samples, people can volunteer to participate in opt-in surveys.

Nonresponse and nonresponse bias. Nonresponse is when someone sampled for a survey does not participate. Nonresponse bias occurs when the pattern of nonresponse leads to error in a poll estimate. For example, college graduates are more likely than those without a degree to participate in surveys, leading to the potential that the share of college graduates in the resulting sample will be too high.

Mode of interview. This refers to the format in which respondents are presented with and respond to survey questions. The most common modes are online, live telephone, text message and paper. Some polls use more than one mode.

Weighting. This is a statistical procedure pollsters perform to make their survey align with the broader population on key characteristics like age, race, etc. For example, if a survey has too many college graduates compared with their share in the population, people without a college degree are “weighted up” to match the proper share.

How are election polls being conducted?

Pollsters are making changes in response to the problems in previous elections. As a result, polling is different today than in 2016. Most U.S. polling organizations that conducted and publicly released national surveys in both 2016 and 2022 (61%) used methods in 2022 that differed from what they used in 2016 . And change has continued since 2022.

One change is that the number of active polling organizations has grown significantly, indicating that there are fewer barriers to entry into the polling field. The number of organizations that conduct national election polls more than doubled between 2000 and 2022.

This growth has been driven largely by pollsters using inexpensive opt-in sampling methods. But previous Pew Research Center analyses have demonstrated how surveys that use nonprobability sampling may have errors twice as large , on average, as those that use probability sampling.

The second change is that many of the more prominent polling organizations that use probability sampling – including Pew Research Center – have shifted from conducting polls primarily by telephone to using online methods, or some combination of online, mail and telephone. The result is that polling methodologies are far more diverse now than in the past.

(For more about how public opinion polling works, including a chapter on election polls, read our short online course on public opinion polling basics .)

All good polling relies on statistical adjustment called “weighting,” which makes sure that the survey sample aligns with the broader population on key characteristics. Historically, public opinion researchers have adjusted their data using a core set of demographic variables to correct imbalances between the survey sample and the population.

But there is a growing realization among survey researchers that weighting a poll on just a few variables like age, race and gender is insufficient for getting accurate results. Some groups of people – such as older adults and college graduates – are more likely to take surveys, which can lead to errors that are too sizable for a simple three- or four-variable adjustment to work well. Adjusting on more variables produces more accurate results, according to Center studies in 2016 and 2018 .

A number of pollsters have taken this lesson to heart. For example, recent high-quality polls by Gallup and The New York Times/Siena College adjusted on eight and 12 variables, respectively. Our own polls typically adjust on 12 variables . In a perfect world, it wouldn’t be necessary to have that much intervention by the pollster. But the real world of survey research is not perfect.

Predicting who will vote is critical – and difficult. Preelection polls face one crucial challenge that routine opinion polls do not: determining who of the people surveyed will actually cast a ballot.

Roughly a third of eligible Americans do not vote in presidential elections , despite the enormous attention paid to these contests. Determining who will abstain is difficult because people can’t perfectly predict their future behavior – and because many people feel social pressure to say they’ll vote even if it’s unlikely.

No one knows the profile of voters ahead of Election Day. We can’t know for sure whether young people will turn out in greater numbers than usual, or whether key racial or ethnic groups will do so. This means pollsters are left to make educated guesses about turnout, often using a mix of historical data and current measures of voting enthusiasm. This is very different from routine opinion polls, which mostly do not ask about people’s future intentions.

When major news breaks, a poll’s timing can matter. Public opinion on most issues is remarkably stable, so you don’t necessarily need a recent poll about an issue to get a sense of what people think about it. But dramatic events can and do change public opinion , especially when people are first learning about a new topic. For example, polls this summer saw notable changes in voter attitudes following Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race. Polls taken immediately after a major event may pick up a shift in public opinion, but those shifts are sometimes short-lived. Polls fielded weeks or months later are what allow us to see whether an event has had a long-term impact on the public’s psyche.

How accurate are polls?

The answer to this question depends on what you want polls to do. Polls are used for all kinds of purposes in addition to showing who’s ahead and who’s behind in a campaign. Fair or not, however, the accuracy of election polling is usually judged by how closely the polls matched the outcome of the election.

By this standard, polling in 2016 and 2020 performed poorly. In both years, state polling was characterized by serious errors. National polling did reasonably well in 2016 but faltered in 2020.

In 2020, a post-election review of polling by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) found that “the 2020 polls featured polling error of an unusual magnitude: It was the highest in 40 years for the national popular vote and the highest in at least 20 years for state-level estimates of the vote in presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial contests.”

How big were the errors? Polls conducted in the last two weeks before the election suggested that Biden’s margin over Trump was nearly twice as large as it ended up being in the final national vote tally.

Errors of this size make it difficult to be confident about who is leading if the election is closely contested, as many U.S. elections are .

Pollsters are rightly working to improve the accuracy of their polls. But even an error of 4 or 5 percentage points isn’t too concerning if the purpose of the poll is to describe whether the public has favorable or unfavorable opinions about candidates , or to show which issues matter to which voters. And on questions that gauge where people stand on issues, we usually want to know broadly where the public stands. We don’t necessarily need to know the precise share of Americans who say, for example, that climate change is mostly caused by human activity. Even judged by its performance in recent elections, polling can still provide a faithful picture of public sentiment on the important issues of the day.

The 2022 midterms saw generally accurate polling, despite a wave of partisan polls predicting a broad Republican victory. In fact, FiveThirtyEight found that “polls were more accurate in 2022 than in any cycle since at least 1998, with almost no bias toward either party.” Moreover, a handful of contrarian polls that predicted a 2022 “red wave” largely washed out when the votes were tallied. In sum, if we focus on polling in the most recent national election, there’s plenty of reason to be encouraged.

Compared with other elections in the past 20 years, polls have been less accurate when Donald Trump is on the ballot. Preelection surveys suffered from large errors – especially at the state level – in 2016 and 2020, when Trump was standing for election. But they performed reasonably well in the 2018 and 2022 midterms, when he was not.

During the 2016 campaign, observers speculated about the possibility that Trump supporters might be less willing to express their support to a pollster – a phenomenon sometimes described as the “shy Trump effect.” But a committee of polling experts evaluated five different tests of the “shy Trump” theory and turned up little to no evidence for each one . Later, Pew Research Center and, in a separate test, a researcher from Yale also found little to no evidence in support of the claim.

Instead, two other explanations are more likely. One is about the difficulty of estimating who will turn out to vote. Research has found that Trump is popular among people who tend to sit out midterms but turn out for him in presidential election years. Since pollsters often use past turnout to predict who will vote, it can be difficult to anticipate when irregular voters will actually show up.

The other explanation is that Republicans in the Trump era have become a little less likely than Democrats to participate in polls . Pollsters call this “partisan nonresponse bias.” Surprisingly, polls historically have not shown any particular pattern of favoring one side or the other. The errors that favored Democratic candidates in the past eight years may be a result of the growth of political polarization, along with declining trust among conservatives in news organizations and other institutions that conduct polls.

Whatever the cause, the fact that Trump is again the nominee of the Republican Party means that pollsters must be especially careful to make sure all segments of the population are properly represented in surveys.

The real margin of error is often about double the one reported. A typical election poll sample of about 1,000 people has a margin of sampling error that’s about plus or minus 3 percentage points. That number expresses the uncertainty that results from taking a sample of the population rather than interviewing everyone . Random samples are likely to differ a little from the population just by chance, in the same way that the quality of your hand in a card game varies from one deal to the next.

The problem is that sampling error is not the only kind of error that affects a poll. Those other kinds of error, in fact, can be as large or larger than sampling error. Consequently, the reported margin of error can lead people to think that polls are more accurate than they really are.

There are three other, equally important sources of error in polling: noncoverage error , where not all the target population has a chance of being sampled; nonresponse error, where certain groups of people may be less likely to participate; and measurement error, where people may not properly understand the questions or misreport their opinions. Not only does the margin of error fail to account for those other sources of potential error, putting a number only on sampling error implies to the public that other kinds of error do not exist.

Several recent studies show that the average total error in a poll estimate may be closer to twice as large as that implied by a typical margin of sampling error. This hidden error underscores the fact that polls may not be precise enough to call the winner in a close election.

Other important things to remember

Transparency in how a poll was conducted is associated with better accuracy . The polling industry has several platforms and initiatives aimed at promoting transparency in survey methodology. These include AAPOR’s transparency initiative and the Roper Center archive . Polling organizations that participate in these organizations have less error, on average, than those that don’t participate, an analysis by FiveThirtyEight found .

Participation in these transparency efforts does not guarantee that a poll is rigorous, but it is undoubtedly a positive signal. Transparency in polling means disclosing essential information, including the poll’s sponsor, the data collection firm, where and how participants were selected, modes of interview, field dates, sample size, question wording, and weighting procedures.

There is evidence that when the public is told that a candidate is extremely likely to win, some people may be less likely to vote . Following the 2016 election, many people wondered whether the pervasive forecasts that seemed to all but guarantee a Hillary Clinton victory – two modelers put her chances at 99% – led some would-be voters to conclude that the race was effectively over and that their vote would not make a difference. There is scientific research to back up that claim: A team of researchers found experimental evidence that when people have high confidence that one candidate will win, they are less likely to vote. This helps explain why some polling analysts say elections should be covered using traditional polling estimates and margins of error rather than speculative win probabilities (also known as “probabilistic forecasts”).

National polls tell us what the entire public thinks about the presidential candidates, but the outcome of the election is determined state by state in the Electoral College . The 2000 and 2016 presidential elections demonstrated a difficult truth: The candidate with the largest share of support among all voters in the United States sometimes loses the election. In those two elections, the national popular vote winners (Al Gore and Hillary Clinton) lost the election in the Electoral College (to George W. Bush and Donald Trump). In recent years, analysts have shown that Republican candidates do somewhat better in the Electoral College than in the popular vote because every state gets three electoral votes regardless of population – and many less-populated states are rural and more Republican.

For some, this raises the question: What is the use of national polls if they don’t tell us who is likely to win the presidency? In fact, national polls try to gauge the opinions of all Americans, regardless of whether they live in a battleground state like Pennsylvania, a reliably red state like Idaho or a reliably blue state like Rhode Island. In short, national polls tell us what the entire citizenry is thinking. Polls that focus only on the competitive states run the risk of giving too little attention to the needs and views of the vast majority of Americans who live in uncompetitive states – about 80%.

Fortunately, this is not how most pollsters view the world . As the noted political scientist Sidney Verba explained, “Surveys produce just what democracy is supposed to produce – equal representation of all citizens.”

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Scott Keeter is a senior survey advisor at Pew Research Center .

Courtney Kennedy is Vice President of Methods and Innovation at Pew Research Center .

How do people in the U.S. take Pew Research Center surveys, anyway?

How public polling has changed in the 21st century, what 2020’s election poll errors tell us about the accuracy of issue polling, a field guide to polling: election 2020 edition, methods 101: how is polling done around the world, most popular.

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